Sensible Whitecaps Transfers – The Third Musketeer

For a while, I was worried that this series wasn’t going to be possible this year. It’s hard to start suggesting transfer targets if you only have a vague idea of what a club might be looking for. But Vanni Sartini gave an interview where he shed some light on what sort of player they were targeting. Apparently, he plans to play with a front three, pairing Brian White and Ryan Gauld with a player who is good in transition and effective in 1v1s. Dedicated readers will note that this is almost exactly what I suggested a few weeks ago! Having correctly figured out what the team is after on an abstract level, let’s see if I can figure out what specific players they might be looking at.

In The Province, it is stated:

“Their ideal forward: a strong one-v-one profile, a strong transition player, a player who’s dangerous with the ball at his feet. In short, a game-changer.”

It should be noted this does not seem to be a direct quote from Sartini but we can only assume this is a summary of what he conveyed. First, when searching for players, we need to decide how to quantify these traits. This comes with certain difficulties. For one, the data source I am relying on (Wyscout) is notoriously very generous with what counts as a dribble. They also have the “progressive runs” stat which is probably more in line with what the average person imagines when they think of “a dribble.” We also have to ask ourselves what sort of transitional player is required. Is it someone who is going to sit on the shoulder of the last defender or somebody who is going to pick up the ball deeper and then run with it? I think it’s heavily implied by the “dangerous with the ball at his feet” line that it’s the latter. This also makes sense as you already have Brian White whose greatest strength is off-the-ball movement. So, in addition to the dribbles and progressive run stats, I also took into account passes received. This should filter out any players who are pure off-the-ball runners.

I then began to think of specific players I would like that fit the description of what we’re looking for. I wanted to design search parameters that would bring those players up. After some tinkering, I ultimately landed on the following parameters.

  • Minimum 4 dribbles attempted per 90
  • Minimum 3 progressive runs per 90
  • Minimum 14 passes received per 90
  • Minimum 1000 minutes played
  • Had not recently moved clubs
  • Maximum age 27-Although the Whitecaps are in win-now mode, you still don’t want to be dropping a ton of money on a player older than this. Life will still go on past the 2024 season (for at least another 8 years or so) and a prime-age player can facilitate a graceful passing of the torch from the Gauld era to the next era.
  • Maximum Transfermarkt value of 3 million- The Whitecaps have never exceeded this threshold on a single transfer fee and there’s no real reason to believe they are going to start now. Transfermarkt values obviously have their problems but it’s the best we’ve got.
  • +/- 0.5 xG+xA/90. We’re not looking for projects here, we want to win now. So it’s imperative that this signing be someone who has proven they can consistently turn their dribbles into chances.

I then piggybacked off the work Axel Storbacka who published a blog post last year that does a pretty decent job of putting all of the world’s leagues in more or less the right order. I searched leagues in Storbacka’s top four tiers of leagues using the above parameters. This generated the following list of players.

Player Name Age League xG/90 xA/90 xG+xA/90 Dribbles Progressive runs
Florent Muslija 25 Germany2 0.32 0.35 0.67 5.43 3.51
Amine Sbai 23 France2 0.23 0.3 0.53 8.64 4.49
Yann Gboho 22 Belgium1 0.3 0.24 0.54 8.12 3.67
Ibrahim Osman 19 Denmark1 0.31 0.22 0.53 10.78 4.93
Elias Saad 24 Germany2 0.25 0.2 0.45 9.18 4.52
Carlos Palacios 23 Chile1 0.31 0.2 0.51 6.47 3.92
Vasil Kusej 23 Czechia1 0.28 0.2 0.48 6.95 3.81
Ransford-Yeboah Konigsdorfer 22 Germany2 0.29 0.15 0.44 4.96 3.43
Sofyan Chader 23 Switzerland1 0.43 0.09 0.52 6.68 3.19

My first big takeaway is that’s not a very long list. There aren’t that many players in this price range who both dribble a lot *and* consistently create chances. That means recruiting for this profile will be a challenge because every other club in the world that shops in this price range and wants this sort of guy is going to have their eye on these players as well. But, on the plus side, it makes it easier for me to research each of them a little more. Having generated this list I then went and watched as many clips of these players as I could find to try to establish which would be the best stylistic fit for the Whitecaps. Obviously, if I were actually working in a scouting department and had a budget of any kind I would go a lot more in-depth than this. But as it stands, I have no budget so I am left watching clips on YouTube and Wyscout. After that process, these are my three favourites from this group.

Florent Muslija

Florent Muslija is a 25-year-old Kosovo international who plays for Paderborn in the 2 Bundesliga. He’s played everywhere along the forward line in his career but has mostly either played on the left or as a #10. He’s played his whole career in Germany, mostly in the 2. Bundesliga where he has 30 goals and 13 assists in 125 appearances. I also noted that his “similar players” section on Fbref includes some pretty successful MLS players Lucas Zelarayan, Carles Gil, and Thiago Almada. If you can add a player with the quality of any of those three you’re feeling pretty good. Nobody has done a recent compilation of him on YouTube but the highlights of a recent game between Paderborn and Schalke are basically his highlights (he’s #30 in black).

Muslija is definitely the high floor option on the list. He’s extremely proven and in the prime of his career.

Yann Gboho

Author’s Note: After this article was written, but before it was published, Gboho signed for Toulouse.

Yann Gboho is a 22-year-old who plays for Cercle Brugge. Born in Cote d’Ivoire, he has represented France at youth levels. Gboho previously played for Rennes but wasn’t able to find consistent playing time in Ligue 1. Gboho has played the vast majority of his minutes in the middle of the field. I’m going to keep it real with you, this is a bit of an xG sicko pick. In 20 matches this season Gboho has 0 goals and 3 assists. But his underlying numbers are extremely strong. 0.54 xG+xA/90 is good but if you normalize by xG+xA per 100 passes received, Gboho is the most efficient chance creator of this group by a long way. Gboho represents a bit of a risk, which might not be appropriate for what the Whitecaps are looking for right now. But, I think he has the most explosive potential in the group.

Amine Sbai:

Amine Sbai is a 23-year-old Morrocan who plays for Grenoble in Ligue 2. Sbai has come up the hard way, having begun his career in the French 5th tier. He’s mostly played on the left but has also played centrally and his video makes it clear he operates in central areas quite a bit. His “similar players” section on fbref also includes a very successful MLS player, San Jose’s Christian Espinoza. Sbai is sort of the midpoint on the risk/sure bet spectrum between Gboho and Muslija. He’s still on the come up but he has over 2000 good minutes in a league comparable to MLS. The most extensive highlights package that’s on YouTube is from his time in the French 3rd tier but you get the idea.

2 thoughts on “Sensible Whitecaps Transfers – The Third Musketeer

  1. IMO, majority owner, Greg Kerfoot, doesnt see the Caps as a priority in his life- he is the invisble owner and plans to keep at that way- he is disengaged from the daily operations of the Club- his mind is occupied by the Downtown Vancouver property development, being on the MLS board for decision-making and, no doubt, watching his son play for the Maple Leafs NHL- watching the west vancouver water view from his mansion must also occupy his thoughts

    expecting anything more and being willing to open his wallet to go beyond $2 mill is unimaginable- we supporters have been stuck with him since entering MLS- and earlier- he and his minority owners skim money from all the franchise fees and have done very well, probably over $100 mill since 2011 just from the expansion kick-backs alone

    this is a great soccer market, but it will always be punching below its potential with this disengaged, money-sucking group of owners- media ‘experts’ avoid any comment on this group, for whatever reason; maybe- why ruin the gravy train of the free luxury BC Place boxes could be 1 answer- i long for a soccer reporter like james lawton who didnt hesitate to say things straight, didnt pull back from controversy

    if i sound ‘pissed off’… i am after almost of 50 years of following the Club- the last 12 years have been the most frustrating- failures happen in soccer, but today’s ownership disengagement is the worst hallmark for the Caps and one shouldnt expect much more, except trying to be ‘joe average’- when expansion stops in the next 5-6 years, what will happen then ??

    this off-season was supposed to be profound and exciting- signing kreilach and Fafa doesnt do that – 6 weeks to season opening – same shite, same results

    1. you sound easy to please.
      In every sports league there are a couple of top teams, most are in the middle, a few are on the bottom. We are in the middle but we have some very skilled players currently.
      Watching Cubas strip the ball from guys and Gauld whip through the defense does not get old – Cubas is awesome to watch operate live in stadium – and I get to sit 20m away from them in a stadium with decent climate control!
      My local team does not need to be top to be interesting.
      We lost the Grizzlies and I loved watching them. I am very glad we have a local owner keeping the Whitecaps team here.
      I hope things click for these guys in 2024 and they have a killer year.
      Good luck boys, go get ’em!!

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