It’s fair to say that Yohei Takaoka’s form at the end of the 2023 season was not the best. He conceded a number of questionable goals and that, combined with with his somewhat limited ability to handle crosses, created problems for Vancouver. So, should Vancouver be looking to make improvements in goal?

First, a PSA

Before we begin we need to understand how we use the xG stat when discussing goalkeepers. Usually, when we’re talking about xG we are talking about pre-shot expected goals. That is to say, models which are heavily focused on shot location. The point of this, amongst other things, is to understand which players/teams are getting shots from areas where goals are usually scored. But, when we’re talking about goalkeepers we are talking about post-shot expected goals. These models do more to take into account how difficult it is to save a shot, rather than just the location it came from. So, when the Whitecaps conceded 5 goals more than expected in 2023, that’s not necessarily just a function of poor goalkeeping. It can also be that the opposition was just really good at pinging the ball into the corner of the goal. Now, on with the article.

Part 1: Yes

Yohei Takaoka was in the 45th percentile for goals saved above/below expected. He saved 0.8 more goals than expected, which fbref ranks 17th amongst MLS goalkeepers. American Soccer Analysis’ G+ model, which values shot stopping very highly but also looks at other things, puts Takaoka almost exactly at 0. Basically meaning he is an average MLS goalkeeper. As I’ve said previously, if the Whitecaps are going to take the next step, to true contender status, they are going to have to replace good players with great ones. Takaoka seems like a very obvious example of the sort of player they need to be upgrading based on that philosophy.

Part 2: But…

It’s all well and good to say that you should get somebody better. But I see some position-specific logistical problems with doing that. Firstly, there are diminishing returns on the improvements you can make in goal. In 2022 Thomas Hasal and Cody Cropper gave up between 10 and 12 goals more than expected. Pretty much anyone doing anything remotely positive would have been a massive improvement. But, say you were able to replace Takaoka with someone you knew could be the 5th best shot-stopper in MLS. The difference there would only be about 4-5 goals. A not insignificant difference, but a lot smaller! Of course, this sort of incremental improvement is what the Whitecaps need to be doing at this point so the smaller improvement should not rule out upgrading in goal.

But I think the most difficult logistical challenge is getting someone you know would be that much of an improvement. Goalkeeper data tends to be quite noisy. There are keepers who consistently beat the expected goals against but the amount they beat it by tends to vary quite a bit. To know, with the required degree of certainty, you had a keeper good enough to be top-5 in MLS you’d need multiple years of that level of performance in MLS or at a comparable level. Who like that is available? I don’t think there’s a single Canadian goalkeeper you can be that confident in at this point. I don’t think any of the handful of Americans are likely to be available for anything short of a king’s ransom. That leaves you wading back into foreign markets for another roll of the dice on a foreign keeper. Guys who have proven themselves to be consistently excellent at this level don’t tend to make lateral moves. They are usually headed up. That said, there are examples of teams doing this successfully. Roman Burki and Daniel were two of the best keepers in the league last year. You’d have to shuffle things around a bit with international slots and probably find a buyer for Takaoka but it could be done.

The question you have to ask yourself then is this: Is goalkeeper the position where you can make the biggest and most reliable gains with the resources available? I doubt it would be. This sort of thing is a little hard to judge because we don’t know how the MLS rules might change or who might suddenly become available. But we do know that Vancouver’s relatively large squad means you only get a couple of these moves maximum. So you need to prioritize. Obviously, if the opportunity arises to bring in a real stud of a goalkeeper that should be explored. But I don’t see too many avenues.

I should talk briefly about where I think the best area to make gains is. I think the best way for the Whitecaps to improve their team, at this stage, might be by contracting in order to expand. For example, let’s say you sell Javain Brown, a player we know there was interest in during the previous transfer window. Let’s also say, for the sake of argument, that Brown is a 7/10 MLS player. Can you then turn around and use those funds and the front office infrastructure Vancouver has been building, to bring in a player who’s an 8.5 or a 9? Of course, things could still change. Maybe a drastic change in MLS rules will flip everything on its head. I’m sure we’ll explore all of this in greater detail in the coming weeks.