The good news for the Vancouver Whitecaps is that the side is riding a newfound wave of momentum, following their 5-0 drubbing of CF Montreal on Saturday and they will have the perfect midweek opportunity to keep that positive progress going.

The bad news, of course, is their opponent in the CONCACAF Champions League quarterfinals is the potential favorite to win the whole competition: LAFC, who will present the stiffest possible test to the question of whether the Caps can string together a series of good results.

LAFC has been off to a decent start, though not one where they have looked untouchable. They remain unbeaten through five games and are among the league leaders in the average number of goals scored per game (1.8) and fewest goals conceded (.6).

If we look at expected goals, the start from LAFC doesn’t appear to be much of a fluke. On nine goals in MLS play, their xG is 8.8. They’ve conceded three goals on four expected goals. Basically, they’re performing as you would expect from a top-flight MLS team.

But in their last four games, LAFC have only one victory: a 2-1 win over a 10-man FC Dallas side.

Carlos Vela has again put in a productive start to the season, who has one of the highest xG tallies in the league but only one goal to show for it, largely because he’s whiffed on a couple of big chances. He has 12 key passes and remains the heartbeat of the team’s attack.

Arguably LAFC’s most dynamic attacker, however, is Denis Bouanga, who has taken up the mantle of trying to replace the prolific and now departed Chicho Arango. Bouanga is one of the leaders in both expected goals and expected assists and hasn’t missed a beat in his first full season in LA.

The defense, however is unlikely to give the Caps much room to work with. Giorgio Chiellini has continued to be an elite defender (by MLS standards), even though he doesn’t always play every match; his pairing with Aaron Long has been a solid one thus far. And John McCarthy has one of the best save percentages in the league.

But Colorado, who earned a 0-0 draw with LAFC over the weekend, was successful in taking LAFC’s most dynamic wide players out of the match and giving Ilie Sánchez, their playmaker in the middle of the park, little room to work with.

The Rapids did this by switching to three-at-the-back, something that doesn’t seem like nearly a good idea for Vancouver. But using Javain Brown and Ryan Raposo at fullback and returning Tristan Blackmon to the starting lineup will hopefully both simultaneously cut down on the danger on the flanks from LAFC and allow the Caps to bypass the midfield more and spark the counter attacks they are probably going to need to beat the away side.

The other question will be whether Simon Becher and Ali Ahmed, whose exuberant performances over the weekend have injected a newfound optimism, will have the fitness to play in the midweek. This is particularly true for Ahmed, who looked gassed by the end of the 90 minutes the other night. Becher seemed fine but also has not been starting, much less doing so twice in a week. Plus, one imagines a well-rested Ryan Gauld will return to the fold.

The fact that Andres Cubas and Julian Gressel got subbed off early suggests there will be no rest for these key cogs and I can’t imagine Brian White and Becher aren’t in the lineup either. Cristian Dajome or Deiber Caicedo might slide in but I suspect there will be few surprises, with Vanni Sartini taking the competition fairly seriously to date.

The Caps have stunned LAFC at BC Place before and the underlying numbers of this season show a team that can potentially go toe-to-toe with a tougher opponent in a one-off match, even with the 5-0 victory being set aside. Fundamentally, they will need to go for it at home, otherwise they will have a difficult go of making up ground at a stadium where they historically have played poorly. I’m pessimistic they can win the tie but I do see them moving on from the home leg with at least a 1-1 draw to their name.

(Image Credit: LAFC)