Saturday night in California, the two best teams to begin the MLS season will face one another for the second time this year. While it’s too early to call this match pivotal in the Supporters’ Shield race, it’s exactly the sort of fixture we could look back on that way by season’s end.

The gulf between these two sides and the rest of MLS has been stark so far. The Whitecaps carry an expected goal difference of +20.9, while the Earthquakes sit at +14.1. The next-best team, Chicago, trails well behind at +7.9. Overall, only four clubs in the league currently boast an xGD better than +5.

Why have these teams been so dominant? Simply put, both are elite on both sides of the ball. More specifically, they have clearly been the league’s two most dangerous attacking teams, while still maintaining strong defensive structure. There are other excellent defensive sides, like Seattle and Nashville, but neither has demonstrated the same balance between chance creation and chance suppression. In San Jose’s case, Bruce Arena appears to have finally solved many of the defensive issues that plagued the club for years, while maintaining the dynamic attack that has defined much of the Quakes’ recent identity.

Preston Judd has already surpassed his previous career high in goals, scoring seven times while adding two assists to lead the club with nine goal contributions. Twenty-year-old Niko Tsakiris has paced the team with four assists, while Timo Werner has produced seven goal contributions in fewer than 500 minutes played. In goal, Brazilian keeper Daniel has quietly been one of the more underrated performers in MLS, and 22-year-old centre back Reid Roberts increasingly looks like the long-awaited answer to San Jose’s search for stability at the back.

The good news for Vancouver is that San Jose will be without two of those key players this weekend, as both Tsakiris and Werner are sidelined through injury. On the Whitecaps’ side, Thomas Müller is expected to miss a second straight match, though Vancouver’s depth makes that absence somewhat easier to absorb. Overall, the injuries feel considerably more damaging for San Jose than they do for the visitors.

As mentioned off the top, the Quakes earned a 1-0 victory at BC Place back in March despite Vancouver largely controlling the match and winning the expected goals battle 1.21 to 0.65. It took a spectacular Beau Leroux strike to separate the sides, and there is little doubt Jesper Sørensen and his squad have had this return fixture circled ever since.

Lurking in the background is a demanding week ahead for Vancouver, with trips to Dallas on Wednesday and Houston next Saturday. Those are difficult road matches and not to be overlooked, but the priority has to be maximizing this opportunity against the conference leaders. Given the form Vancouver have shown for most of the season, and the absences San Jose will be dealing with, I’ll back the Whitecaps to earn a 2-1 win.