The Vancouver Whitecaps will look to claim the Western Conference title against a red-hot FC Dallas side on Saturday in their MLS regular-season finale.

This is likely the most consequential decision day for the ‘Caps in the team’s MLS history, with the possible exception of the year they snuck into the playoffs under Vanni Sartini. A win or draw (or San Diego loss or draw) would clinch Vancouver’s first-ever Western Conference crown, the number one seed in the playoffs and the home-field advantage that comes along with it. It would also be yet another accolade for Jesper Sørensen in his first year in charge.

A couple of months ago, this would have seemed like the perfect opponent for the final week of the season. When FC Dallas sold Lucho Acosta over the summer, it was assumed that they were waving the white flag on their season and starting to regroup ahead of next year.

Instead, first-year head coach Eric Quill switched his formation to emphasize Logan Farrington and Petar Musa, and they caught fire. Since Acosta last played for this team on July 4, FC Dallas has recorded five wins, five draws, and three losses, and has shot up the Western Conference standings to eighth place, good enough to host the play-in game (unless they were to have, say, a motocross rally). Quill has tweaked the exact formation from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-4-2 and, at times, a 5-3-2. But the result is the same: goals and assists for Musa and Farrington, the latter of whom meshes better with the star striker than Acosta did and makes better use of his playmaking abilities.

The bad news for Dallas? They will be without both of those players, with Farrington picking up a questionable red card against the LA Galaxy and Musa being suspended for yellow card accumulation. That is a big blow: Musa and Farrington have more goals (23) than the rest of the team combined. Anderson Julio has shown flashes of quality, and his pace poses lots of problems for defenders, but he has come off the bench more in recent matches instead of leading the line himself. And while there are other quality pieces here (Bernard Kamungo and Patrickson Delgado have started to realize some of their hype in recent weeks, and Kaick’s quality as a destroyer should make him a dark-horse young player of the year guy), this show revolves around Musa and Farrington.

Dallas has a somewhat below-average defense, though things have gone a bit better on this front in recent weeks. But they will also miss Ramiro, their right back/right wingback, who will be suspended as well. That will necessitate moving Shaq Moore and/or some other pieces around, potentially negating some of the positives of Quill’s new tactical wrinkles and creating some real opportunity for the Caps.

While Ryan Gauld has said he wants to start, I would be surprised to see Vancouver risk it before the playoffs. Instead, I’d imagine a pretty typical starting XI, with Gauld continuing to get incrementally more time off the bench. Joedrick Pupe figures to be available to make his MLS debut as well, and that would be a boon for the ‘Caps, who would love to let him see some minutes before the playoffs.

The ‘Caps have plenty of motivation in this one, and aside from the CCL final, this has been a side that hasn’t disappointed in do-or-die moments under Sørensen, who will be looking to burnish his credentials for coach of the year with a win. It would be extremely MLS if Dallas were to get something out of this, and there certainly is always a danger for Vancouver in overlooking a motivated opponent with the playoffs looming. But something tells me the message for Sørensen is characteristically blunt and that the stakes will not be lost on anyone out there. Dallas has been one of the best stories of this second half — but the ‘Caps will be looking to end their Cinderella run here and now.