The Vancouver Whitecaps are playing in their third Canadian Championship final in a row and they are probably going to win it. It’s not a foregone conclusion, of course, this is certainly a stronger version of Toronto FC than the one which was fielded in 2023. But just about every indicator one would look at to determine “which team is more likely to win this game of football” is in the the Whitecaps’ favour. Thanks for coming.

Toronto FC:

Ok, seriously, let’s look at Toronto FC in at least a basic level of detail. TFC currently sit 8th in the Eastern conference after an up and down season. Their underlying data does not really stand out, they are a bit below average at both attacking and defending. They currently have a -17 goal difference and that’s down to a mix of below average defending and goalkeeping. Toronto’s xG against is 9th in the East, which is not good. Both Sean Johnson and Luka Gavran have conceded more goals than expected, Johnson by a little bit and Gavran by quite a lot considering the number of minutes he has played.

On the offensive side of things it looks even more dire. Toronto’s best xG producer on a per 90 basis is Prince Owusu and, if you follow any Toronto FC fans on twitter, they *hate* him. In fairness, 0.45 xG+xA/90 is about on par with Damir Kreilach, a player the Whitecaps only put on if it’s absolutely necessary. The two Italians have also not been very threatening this season. Federico Bernardeschi has put up 0.45 xG+xA/90 which is not too bad for a player who sometimes plays as a wing-back but isn’t exactly star player material. Lorenzo Insigne has been even worse, despite playing in a more advanced position, coming in at 0.35 xG+xA/90 (comparable to Sebastian Berhalter on the ‘Caps).

Under John Herdman Toronto have mostly played a 3-5-2 or a 3-4-3. This has stabilized things a bit defensively but, as we discussed above, has not produced a lot of offensive juice. They rotated heavily on the weekend so should have a full strength squad.

So that’s Toronto FC. They aren’t that good. They aren’t so bad you can totally write them off, Bernardschi could conceivably cut inside and hit two top corner dingers in the first 10 minutes. But their below average underlying play and Vancouver’s home field advantage make a TFC win unlikely.

Vancouver Whitecaps:

The Whitecaps are coming off a slightly dispiriting but not unexpected loss to the LA Galaxy. The ‘Caps also rotated their squad though not to the same degree TFC did. The Whitecaps don’t have any major absences with Ali Ahmed and Andres Cubas both returning to full training. Isaac Boehmer will start in goal but that’s always worked out basically fine before so I don’t see any reason to be particularly concerned about it. I would imagine Ahmed and Adekugbe will make up the rest of the Canadian quota. How much of a role the three new additions, Armstrong, Ocampo, and Caicedo play will also be interesting to watch. I’m particularly curious about Caicedo who hasn’t re-appeared since a promising cameo.