The Vancouver Whitecaps are once again in action, finishing off a busy portion of the schedule, at home against the Colorado Rapids. This is the second time this season the Whitecaps have faced the Rapids, having previously lost on the road, following a Bjorn Inge Utvik red card.

Colorado Rapids:

The Rapids are, by most measures, a solid though unspectacular team. They sit 7th in the West with a 6W-4D-6L record. They are 3rd in the West in the xG table (more on that in a moment). However, their recent form has not been good at all with just 4 points from their last 5 games.

Colorado are like a team designed in a lab to under-perform their xG. Their top producer of expected offence this year is Keven Cabral, who has scored 21 goals from 29 expected from the data available on fbref. This is a record that makes Darren Mattocks look like Filippo Inzaghi. Rafael Navarro is their top *actual* goal scorer but 4/9 of his goals are penalties. From open play Navarro’s numbers are pretty bad. Djordje Mihailovic also provides some offensive threat but at 0.4 xG+xA/90 isn’t striking fear into the hearts of opponents.

But Colorado’s real Achilles heal is in goal. USMNT and former Manchester City goalkeeper Zach Steffen is having a *terrible* season. The season is not even half over yet and Steffen has already conceded 7.4 goals more than expected. This means he lets in an extra goal compared to the average MLS keeper almost every other game. This level of performance is almost twice as bad as what got Thomas Hasal run out of town. So, for the love of god Whitecaps, get some shots on target! This guy is in “couldn’t stop a beach ball” territory. Go watch some highlights of Colorado’s recent games, he looks like a guy who’s put the gloves on in men’s league because he pulled a hammy.

I know I have said quite a lot of negative things about Colorado here, but really their underlying play is fine. If they traded for, like, Alex Bono they would be higher in the table. Players like Cole Bassett and Moise Bombito make them a challenging opponent for anyone. But, at the end of the day, their top attacker is a guy who can’t finish and their starting goalkeeper can’t stop the ball. So, with the home field advantage, the Whitecaps *Should* be able to handle them.

Vancouver Whitecaps:

The big question for this game, from a Whitecaps perspective, is can they create chances? As I outlined above, if they can consistently break Colorado down they will have no trouble at all. In their previous match against SKC the Whitecaps cleared 1.5 non-penalty expected goals in a single game for the first time since the double red card game against Seattle. It would be a very Vancouver result to not get a shot on target until the 87th minute against the worst keeper in the league. In their most recent match against sporting Kansas City the Whitecaps reverted to the 3-5-2 we saw from them last season. I am not a hater of the 3-4-3 we have seen this year but in the absence of a truly great third forward it makes sense to solidify things in the middle of the park and perhaps free up Pedro Vite to get forward more as he has in previous seasons.

The Whitecaps are one of the worst recent form teams in the league but my read on this is that it has more to do with the good luck they had early in the season evening out than it does with any new specific flaw. They massively out chanced both Miami and Austin in their bad run and were playing Colorado fairly evenly before the red card. Only the LAFC game (in MLS play anyway) stands out as a truly awful performance.

In terms of injuries, only Sam Adekugbe is out. Damir Kreilach is available for selection (though one would hope only for a cameo appearance).

That’s about all I have to say in the lead up to this one. Just please get some shots!