The Vancouver Whitecaps return home to BC Place with a must-win midweek fixture on the horizon against San Diego FC.

Pretty much every match is a must-win one at this point, with the Caps immediately squandering the breathing room they had gained for themselves with their 1-0 loss to Colorado over the weekend. That leaves them just one point ahead of FC Dallas for first place in the West.

San Diego is also in must-win mode, though they are hanging on by a thread in the Western Conference playoff race. Currently, San Diego sits six points adrift from the final playoff spot and is watching its postseason hopes slip away.

San Diego briefly looked like a good bet to make the playoffs, winning three out of four matches coming out of the Leagues Cup break. Since that happened in late August, however, they have not recorded a single win. There have been a lot of draws in there, including some that would be good results in a vacuum (a 2-2 draw with Inter Miami, for instance). But this is not the same team as last season.

How did San Diego go from top of the West to…whatever this is? Fatigue from their CONCACAF Champions Cup run dug them in a hole that they have struggled to recover from, something that was compounded by a lack of top-end talent.

But in the summer transfer window, San Diego added striker Cedric Bakambu and DP winger Elias Achouri, both moves that seemed to signal a more aggressive approach from the front office. Bakambu has scored four goals since arriving, while Achouri has struggled with only two tallies and, now, a knock that will keep him out for the foreseeable future.

The attack has not really been the issue for San Diego, however. Andres Dreyer continues to be a difference maker, albeit not one performing at an MLS MVP level. Marcus Ingvartsen continues to be a solid MLS level forward. And there are a host of other random guys (Gabriel Pirani, Amahl Pellegrino, etc.) who can pop up and contribute. San Diego still wants the ball and still has plenty of ways to be dangerous with it.

Where things have fallen apart is the defense, which has been among the league’s worst — and has entered a tailspin in recent matches. In their last nine matches, San Diego has given up an average of 2.3 goals per game, an eye-popping figure for a team that was generally solid in defense last year. Manu Duah has not taken a step forward this year, Chris McVey has gotten sent off more than anyone else in MLS, and Sam Vines, brought in to replace Luca Bombino, has not really taken off.

That means that there is plenty there to exploit for the Caps, which is good news because they need something to help their attack gel and take off. That certainly didn’t happen against Colorado, who held the Caps to a 0.36 xG — one of their lowest totals of the season.

Brian White remains in a funk, Emmanuel Sabbi is out for awhile, and the Caps are struggling to break down teams that are fully in tune with how they like to play. The good news is that San Diego’s possession-heavy style of play should mean for space for the Caps to break into, rather than the more regimented, organized defenses that Vancouver has encountered in recent matches.

Sabbi seems likely to miss some time and Yadaly Diaby’s status is unclear, after the Guinean winger also exited the match against Colorado early. In good news, Thomas Müller has returned to full training and could feature on Wednesday. Jeevan Badwal and Aleksa Cvetkovic also might rotate into the squad, as could Mathias Laborda. Otherwise, I would expect a lot of overlap with the lineup Sørensen used against Colorado.

The Caps will get a boost from returning home but will be the ones with the pressure, as they seek to solidify their spot at the top of the conference. San Diego should play a more expansive game against the Caps, which would bode well for Vancouver’s ability to generate chances. But the away side also has more firepower to hurt you, meaning they shouldn’t be underestimated. This is a far cry from last year’s Western Conference Final but should have plenty of entertainment for neutrals.