Saturday night, the top two seeds in the Western Conference will fight it out for a spot in the MLS Cup Final on December 6th. For Vancouver, this has been over 10 years in the making. Meanwhile, down in San Diego, no one expected them to be here in their inaugural season.

Don’t let those histories mislead you, however. Both of these teams absolutely deserve to be in this position, as despite the doubters, they were clearly the two most consistently dominant teams in the West over the course of the season, and they’ve validated those regular season results by making it through the first two rounds of the playoffs.

For Vancouver, a tricky Decision Day saw them drop to the second seed, and they faced FC Dallas in the first round. After taking care of business rather easily at home, the Toros gave Vancouver a good battle in Texas, but a stoppage-time equaliser from Ralph Priso broke FC Dallas’ spirit and ultimately the Whitecaps advanced on penalties to take a clean sweep.

It took San Diego three games to get through their first-round series, but I would describe their first round as similarly slanted to that of Vancouver’s. Though Portland did manage to grab Game Two on penalties, San Diego outscored Portland 6–1 in California, and especially in Game Three, the result was never in doubt.

By now, everyone knows what happened in Vancouver last weekend. For the third year in a row, Vancouver was matched up with LAFC in the playoffs, and after two years of failure, they were finally able to break through. After 45 minutes, it would have been easy to think the match was over with Vancouver up 2–0, but Son Heung-min had something to say about that. A late red card for Vancouver left the match looking like it was back in LAFC’s hands for good, but Vancouver scraped through extra time, and eventually Mathias Laborda sealed the deal in a penalty shootout. It was an emotional roller coaster of a match, but perhaps it was just what Vancouver needed to affirm that this might be their year.

Down in San Diego two days later, the newcomers faced a tricky match against Minnesota. Eric Ramsay’s Loons played their expected low-block, possession-optional style, and if not for a tremendous goal-line clearance, the hosts could have easily found themselves down 1–0. The match seemed to turn at that moment, however, and a brilliant bit of interplay between Corey Baird and Anders Dreyer led to the only goal of the match in the 72nd minute. Minnesota did not have the attacking options to put San Diego under threat after going down a goal, and the final minutes of the match were disappointingly uneventful for a neutral, or for those looking for another match at BC Place.

This has led us to the Western Conference Final this weekend, as these two teams will start this match knowing their potential opponent in an MLS Cup Final, as NYCFC and Inter Miami will face one another earlier in the day in Fort Lauderdale.

San Diego had the measure of Vancouver back in the regular season, securing a high-scoring win at BC Place in June before the two teams played out a 1–1 draw at Snapdragon Stadium in July. With that said, neither of these teams has seen each other in their current form. Milan Iloski moved to Philadelphia mid-season, and Vancouver was missing players on international duty and did not yet have Thomas Müller in the fold at that point of the season. So how much can we really take away from those matches? It’s a good question.

One of the most intriguing aspects of this match will be the battle for the ball. Both teams prefer to be ball-dominant, with San Diego playing with the ball more than any other team in the league over the course of the regular season, and Vancouver ranking sixth. Though they each like to hold the ball, they do so in different ways. San Diego loves to bait their opponents into pressing, and then they play through that press and expose spaces. For Vancouver, they love to use their press to win the ball back quickly after losing it, and they are happy to be patient in the attacking third, working the ball back and forth to find the right opportunity. Neither of these teams has played an opponent in these playoffs anything like their opponent in this upcoming round, especially when considering Minnesota and LAFC are teams that distinctly thrive without the ball, so the challenge will be much different on Saturday.

For San Diego, the attack begins and ends with the work of Anders Dreyer. If San Diego is going to progress to the final, Dreyer will need to play his role. In the “Non-Messi Category,” I don’t think there was much debate that Dreyer was the best player in the league this year, notching 19 goals and 17 primary assists, with only one of those goals coming from the penalty spot. With Hirving Lozano likely to come off the bench, San Diego’s quality up front is threatening, but not as diverse as LAFC’s.

Flipping things over to Vancouver, it will be crucial for the Whitecaps to maintain superiority in the midfield, as Andres Cubas and Sebastian Berhalter have looked better than any duo in the league this year. In attack, Vancouver will need to flex its depth of options, as Ahmed and Sabbi can help create space in wide channels, while White and Müller can offer a clinical final touch. There is also Vancouver’s added element of attacking set pieces, which can be an easy way to secure control of a relatively even match.

We can’t preview this match without talking about the centre-back position for Vancouver as well. With Tristan Blackmon out due to suspension and Belal Halbouni out with a knee injury, the most likely duo is Ralph Priso, who has been brilliant in that spot, and Mathias Laborda, who would move from his wide position. This would task Edier Ocampo and Tate Johnson to man the flanks. If Jesper Sørensen is really worried about the defensive matchups against Dreyer, we could also see Laborda remain as a fullback, with Joedrick Pupe slotting into the middle of the park. Pupe has played less than 10 minutes for this team, so that would be a big risk, but only the coaching staff knows if he’s ready for that type of assignment.

Looking at the match in totality, I do think there are a couple of factors that play in Vancouver’s favour. First, while San Diego is very good, they are a bit overrated when it comes to their points total versus the expected numbers, and I think they definitely beat up on some bad teams and squeaked out some results in coin-flip matches. Vancouver, conversely, tilted the field with more regularity, and that gives me more confidence they can get the job done when the pressure is on. Second, usually home-field advantage plays a huge role in MLS, but Snapdragon Stadium is not exactly renowned as a lion’s den. Obviously, it’s San Diego’s first season, so that’s fair enough, but I’d be far more daunted by the prospect of Vancouver going to Minnesota or Seattle, for example.

With all of that considered, I still think this will be a close and entertaining match, but I have to back the Whitecaps to get the job done after what I witnessed last weekend. I think Dreyer will get a goal for the home side, but it won’t be enough, as the Whitecaps will take a 2–1 result and advance to the MLS Cup Final.