The Vancouver Whitecaps will hope the third time is the charm on Saturday night, when they host LAFC in a do-or-die playoff match where they will try to avoid another postseason defeat at the hands of their Southern California rivals.

Aside from the CONCACAF Champions Cup Final, this is probably the biggest match in the Caps’ MLS-era history. It isn’t just the stakes — a spot in the Western Conference finals awaits the winner — but also the opponent. LAFC has been the bogey team for Vancouver, but this roster is the best positioned yet to slay the giant.

The Whitecaps will have 52,000 fans in their corner in a sold-out BC Place. Sure, there might be a few fans there to see Son-Heung Min. But if the match against Inter Miami in the CCC was any indication, this will be a highly partisan crowd, looking to lift their side to victory.

Both Vancouver and LAFC won their wild-card matchups in two games, meaning they’ve been cooling their heels for three weeks. But the Caps maximised that layoff, using it to help Tristan Blackmon, Ryan Gauld, and Brian White (who is available for selection) get healthy. That means hard decisions for Jesper Sørensen, who will have to decide if Gauld is worth starting or bringing off the bench as a change of pace in the second half.

Vancouver will likely have the bulk of possession, further complicating things. LAFC love hitting in transition with Bouanga and Son, potentially the most dangerous duo in MLS.

This isn’t quite as radical a counterattacking approach as Steve Cherundolo championed in the past, with LAFC averaging around 51% possession, and Marc Delgado and Timothy Tillman have helped stabilise a midfield that struggled to progress the ball last year. But LAFC didn’t have the majority of possession in both of their matches against Austin FC in round one, showing pretty clearly what their blueprint will likely be here.

That suits Sørensen just fine, though it might make someone like Gauld a bit more valuable to try to maximise the final ball and really take the game to LAFC. Emmanuel Sabbi showed he can create and take players on in a low block as well, however, meaning this isn’t a super clear-cut decision for the manager.

And Sorensen will have choices when it comes to the backline as well. The hope is that Blackmon can start, leaving a decision to make about whether to deploy Mathias Laborda as a fullback (where he has historically had success against Bouanga) or as Blackmon’s centreback partner. Belal Halbouni could deputise if Laborda goes out wide, and there is also the matter of Joedrick Pupe, who made his debut against FC Dallas and who could be an option as well.

LAFC has other pieces who can create headaches for the opposition. Nathan Ordaz thrives in the space he often receives in this attack, and the aforementioned Delgado will look to break lines and test the Caps’ backline. But let’s not kid ourselves here — this team revolves around Bouanga and Son, and survival in this match hinges on limiting their danger (ask Austin how that worked out) or outscoring them.

While the Caps blew away FC Dallas at BC Place, they also could have easily had the match dead and buried by halftime. That isn’t a criticism of a masterful attacking performance (Michael Collidi in goal had a lot to do with the scoreline), but it still presents a warning: the Caps simply must convert their chances because, more often than not, LAFC will. They will likely look to pin the away side back at the start and ride the crowd’s energy. An early goal (like what happened against Inter Miami) would be a huge boost, even more than it usually is.

This matchup is the most compelling of the four MLS semifinals, and it is a bit harsh on both of these teams that it comes now, rather than the Western Conference finals. Müller v. Son, the drama of past playoff meetings, the sell-out crowd … this match has it all. The Caps have a lot of demons when it comes to LAFC, but I see this game as a true coin flip and, truthfully, if there is a team that can overcome past heartbreak, it is this one.