Tuesday night at BC Place, the Vancouver Whitecaps will face Forge FC for a spot in the Canadian Championship Final. For Vancouver, it’s a chance to establish themselves as the clear kings of Canada, with a fourth straight title. For Forge, it’s a chance to establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with in Canada, regardless of league and stature.

A little over a month ago, in the first leg, these two teams went to battle in Hamilton. It was an entertaining but rather sloppy match, ending with the tie remaining even, and the scoreline 2-2.

Given that Soccer Canada has done away with the away goal rule, Vancouver is still very much in the driver’s seat, but not as much as they could have been. This match will essentially play as a standalone fixture, with Forge not necessarily having to score in order to put the Whitecaps under some pressure.

That being said, Forge is no longer the unbeaten behemoth they were a month ago. Although still at the top of the CPL table, they have finally taken a couple of tough results, first, giving up their streak on the road in Calgary by a score of 4-1 at the end of August, and more recently, in a shock result, losing out to Valour FC this past Thursday.

What has gone wrong? Nothing too catastrophic, but Forge’s perfect discipline and structure that teams have struggled so mightily to break down has started to show cracks. It’s simply very difficult to play with that level of discipline for a full season. At the other end of the pitch, Forge has padded their stats against the lesser teams in the CPL (two 5-0 wins over Valour earlier in the season), so while they are still a dynamic attacking team, they can’t always outscore their problems if there is a defensive breakdown.

Forge is now in a spot where, despite their continued dominance, they are only two points ahead of Ottawa for the top spot in the CPL table. It’s worth mentioning that Ottawa is also still alive in this competition on the other side of the bracket, though they are down 3-1 against Vancouver FC, with the second leg in that tie set for Thursday night. Obviously, if the result on that side holds, and the Whitecaps progress, it would set up a mouthwatering all-Vancouver final at BC Place, in what would be the first ever meeting between those two clubs. Sign me up.

Potential matchups aside, Forge have proven they have the mentality for big matches in both CPL and Canadian Championship play, so you know that Vancouver will get Forge’s best on Tuesday night.

Turning things over to the Whitecaps, Vancouver is coming off the highest of highs, a 7-0 romp over league leaders Philadelphia Union at the weekend. I am sure Jesper Sørensen will be warning his players about the potential of an emotional comedown, but it also helped that many of Vancouver’s starters got a rest in the second half, so legs should be about as fresh as one could expect.

In terms of Vancouver’s lineup, Isaac Boehmer has been the go-to man in this competition between the sticks, and I wonder if Sørensen will see that through all the way to the final. Jayden Nelson should also be due for a start, as he came off the bench against Philly and promptly made a notable impact. Other Canadians that could feature include Ralph Priso and Jeevan Badwal in the midfield, as well as Rayan Elloumi up front, after scoring on the weekend.

Overall, this is a match where Vancouver should absolutely have the upper hand, but the longer the match remains there for the taking, the more Forge will grow with confidence, and they do have a knack for big matches. I think the home pitch advantage should be enough to push Vancouver to their fourth straight Canadian Championship Final, so I’ll go for a 2-1 Whitecaps win.