Saturday night at BC Place, the Vancouver Whitecaps will face off against Sporting Kansas City in a Western Conference showdown.

After two solid results on the road last week, the Whitecaps are returning home with a chance to continue their push for the top spot in the West. That being said, this match will not be without its challenges for Vancouver. The team is still dealing with the recent departure of Pedro Vite, as well as the season-ending injury to Ranko Veselinovic that took place against San Diego, while players such as Ali Ahmed and Ryan Gauld also remain on the injured list.

First, though, let’s have a look at Vancouver’s opponents for this match. It’s been another mediocre year so far for SKC, who finished 13th in the West last year, and remain in that same spot currently. Undoubtedly, the biggest news this season in KC has been the departure of Peter Vermes, who was on the touchline for the club since 2009 until he parted ways with the club at the end of March, as they had picked up just one point through their first six games.

So why has Kansas City struggled so much? If you take a quick look at their top players, this is a team that brought in Dejan Joveljić from LA Galaxy in the offseason, and he’s already scored 13 goals. That’s very good! They also have Dániel Sallói and Erik Thommy, who have been consistent and reliable attack-minded players. Additionally, they brought in Spanish midfielder Manu García from the Greek league, who has recorded 7 assists. That’s also quite good! Sporting KC is middle of the pack in terms of goals scored, so they appear to at least somewhat be doing the job at the end of the pitch.

The story is a bit more complicated, though. SKC ranks dead last in the West when it comes to expected goals, that seems surprising given what I just outlined. They also rank dead last in the West when it comes to expected goals allowed, perhaps less surprising. Let’s unpack both of those a bit further.

In terms of the attack, I think the expected numbers reveal that Kansas is relying a lot more on quality individual play than on a system that creates high-danger chances. SKC has amassed 14 games where they’ve generated 1.0 xG or less, and you can’t rely on that level of expected production, no matter how good your striker is at finishing, and let there be no doubt about it, Joveljić is elite.

Defensively, things have been awful for KC in both real and expected terms. It’s been a heavy dose of MLS Superdraftee Jansen Miller (a man who substantiates our theory that Superdraft picks are NPCs that spawn a week before the draft) and LaLiga relegation fodder veteran Joaquín Fernández. That duo hasn’t been good enough for Sporting. When you add that to a rotating cast of characters at the fullback spots, it’s been hard for this team to gain any consistency or identity in their defensive third.

Sporting has some form going into this match, having picked up two wins over their last five, a 2-1 result at home over Charlotte, and a 2-1 away victory against Colorado. Most recently, SKC drew NYCFC 1-1 at home, with Dániel Sallói scoring a 74th-minute equalizer for the home team to secure a single point.

Flipping things over to Vancouver, the primary story of this weekend without a doubt will be filling the void that Ranko Veselinovic will leave behind in the centre of the defensive line. Much of Vancouver’s best play this season can be credited to the stability provided by Veselinovic and Tristan Blackmon, both on and off the ball. Without that duo, Jesper Sørensen will be forced to find new chemistry in the group. Be that moving someone like Mathias Laborda centrally, simply plugging in Bjorn Inge Utvik or Belal Halbouni, or perhaps chasing a transfer/loan target like Luc de Fougerolles. For this weekend, I imagine that Utvik will be the man for the job, as he’s played a good amount of minutes and been pretty solid for what he’s being asked to do.

Elsewhere, Vancouver’s All-Stars are back from those festivities in Austin, so I would think that at least Takaoka, White, and Berhalter will be straight back into the lineup. I know Blackmon was still recovering from an injury, so I imagine his status could be a bit more of a coin flip. Sporting KC is not particularly interested in holding the ball, so I could see Jesper going a bit more aggressive with his choices in the midfield and at fullback. If the Whitecaps can bag an early goal, they could put the screws to this SKC team. Equally though, Vancouver will have to be wary of Joveljić up front, who could easily poach a goal out of nothing.

All in all, these are the types of matches where Vancouver needs to bank three points. Sporting has not shown enough this season to be a serious threat, and VWFC’s attacking weapons should give them real issues. I’ll predict a 3-1 Whitecaps win.

(Images: Sporting KC, Vancouver Whitecaps FC)