Normally, around this point in the season, I do a write-up analyzing the Vancouver Whitecaps season to date. 10 games is usually enough data that you can start drawing conclusions from the numbers. But that feels like a bit of a pointless exercise this year because it would just be me trying to find new ways to write “They are amazing.” The Whitecaps have the highest expected goal difference per game of any team in the league by a huge margin and just about every position is filled by a player who is an absolute stats monster. I guess if you had to pick a weakness they are ‘only’ the third-best team in expected goals for but you have to think that’s basically a wash since their best offensive player has played less than 200 league minutes.
So what do I want to talk about instead? I want to explore why nobody saw this coming, including me. It’s fun to dunk on the MLS website analysts for predicting the Whitecaps to miss the playoffs but truthfully I have not found anybody who styles themselves as an analyst who predicted anything even close to the season the Whitecaps are having. Below is a table of where various analysts predicted the Whitecaps would finish in the Western Conference. It includes the official MLS website analysts, the hosts of the analytically minded ASA podcast, and the predictions of The Third Sub staff writers.
15th – Michele Giannone
14th – Osvaldo Alonso, Ben Wright
13th – Sasha Kljestan, Kaylyn Kyle
12th – Antonella Gonzalez
11th – Dax McCarty
10th – Matt Doyle, Miguel Gallardo, Harrison Crow
9th – Andrew Bahl
8th – Bradley Wright-Phillips, Caleb Wilkins
7th – Kian Gadsby, Ian Jones
6th – Samuel Rowan, Alexandre Gangue-Ruzic, Kieran Doyle
There was no standpoint that gave you the foresight to predict the Whitecaps season. Whether you were a former professional player, a career media person, a data analyst, or a humble blogger you were incredibly wrong about the 2025 Whitecaps. I would like to point out that, as a cohort, The Third Sub writers were the least wrong but predicting the best team in the league to finish in a low playoff spot is still a pretty big miss!
What was it that each of these people, with their various styles of expertise, all missed? Well, there was one brave voice in the wilderness whose predictions were a lot more on point than anyone else’s I’ve seen. I am of course speaking of Redditor u/whitecapsinsider who wrote a post in the Whitecaps subreddit in early February entitled “It’s time to get excited, this team is good!” What was this person’s secret ingredient? Extreme optimism about Vancouver’s young players!
Just about every young player on the Whitecaps has fulfilled the most optimistic possible view of their potential heading into the season. Ali Ahmed has always been an outstanding ball carrier but now he is also producing shots, putting up 0.48 xG+xA/90 good enough for the 72nd percentile amongst MLS attacking midfielders this season (Also he is 24 so stretching the definition of a young player a little bit). Pedro Vite had elite progressive passing numbers previously but now he is also a serious danger in the final 3rd. Perhaps the most impressive step forward, however, has been Sebastian Berhalter. Berhalter has gone from a useful backup to a player with elite numbers in every phase of play. Seriously, 94th percentile for xG+xA, 97th percentile for progressive passes, and 99th percentile for tackles and interceptions. It is pretty rare to find a midfielder with all three of those skills at such a high level.
This success amongst young players has also extended to slightly more peripheral players. Edier Ocampo and Tate Johnson, unexpectedly pressed into service as the starting fullbacks both have Fbref pages that are full of green bars. Jayden Nelson has been in and out with injury so his true level is a little bit hard to judge but him casually dropping 7 goal contributions in all competitions has been huge for a team that looked like it was going to struggle with attacking depth. JC Ngando is 25 so it doesn’t really count as a young player but he has taken to MLS like a duck to water after starring in MLSNP and USL. Even the often-maligned Ralph Priso is quietly turning in a season that the stats like. ASA’s G+ model rates him as an above-average MLS player (though it should be said this is based on a fairly small sample of MLS minutes) and Fbref has Andres Cubas and Diego Chara as two of his closest statistical matches.
So what can all the analysts in the table above (including me) learn from being so terribly wrong? Well, to a certain extent, I have to defend the MLS commentariat, because everything working out so well is unusual. Young players are notoriously hard to predict with any old list of “the 50 best younger players in the world” being filled with youngsters who fell by the wayside. Still, it is worth remembering that young players can and do improve. So, when we see players like Vite, Ahmed, and Berhalter putting up solid numbers in their late teens and early 20s, we should perhaps be a little bit more generous in our assessment of their ability to reach elite status.
Although there is certainly some luck involved in all of your young players working out at the same time, I do think the Whitecaps deserve some credit for building up this stable of players over the past few seasons. You can’t have all of these young players cash in at the same time if you weren’t making smart investments and helping them along when their talents were not as immediately obvious. Jesper Sørensen no doubt deserves credit as he continues his track record of developing young players. But I think even before Sørensen had arrived, Vancouver was doing a much better job of developing players than they were in the 2010s. Think about how much better Ranko Veselinovic is now than when he arrived, for example.
Please don’t loose good players they are hard and costly to replace they have good chemistry with this team
Team is doing great this year. As most said , better than anyone predicted, especially with a new coach, most thought it was going to be “start all over again”.
But what is still really missing is the crowd back in the stands. With the exception of the Inter Miami game, the crowd is still not back as they were the first few years in MLS. I don’t know what more they need to do to get the crowd back. I went to several games in Seattle the first 5 or 6 years of the WC in MLS. I looked with envy at those Sounders crowd, stadium pretty filled, like the WC v Miami game. What it has to happen for the people of BC to be at that level of excitement?
All with one of the lowest player budgets in the league. They are currently leading in the Money Ball Shield.
This year ,2025, they are 10th out of 30 teams so far in salary. That being said, major credit needs to be given to Axel for building this roster over 2-3 years with generally good targets.
The coach actually deserves ALL the credit here. Every player has increased their contributions this year compared to last. Even the new players like Sabbi and Nelson have far better stats than their very average form at their previous clubs.
They would not have improved to this level under Vanni. Some of the “younger” players like Ahmed and Vito were stagnating. More experienced players like Berhalter and Veselinovic were not improving.
Its all down to Jesper. Plus Axel for finding him of course.
It’s also just how MLS is built. Vancouver is building a young team and have been for years now. Eventually those young players develop and this is the fruit of that process. Most of MLS is looking to sign aging players with big names. This is actually not great for the league as it becomes a retirement league or an old man’s league. A few teams have figured out this formula might sell tickets but it rarely wins championships. The whitecaps and a few others went into a different direction, the right direction, and are building great players and teams. Yes they can get snatched by bigger clubs but those clubs have to pay for them and the whitecaps will get stronger as that money gets reinvested into training and player development. At some point the team will be an unstoppable force in MLS. That’s my prediction
I think the most pressing concern should be getting Vite re-signed so he doesn’t leave for nothing. I could see Berhalter, Vite, Ahmed and Ocampo all moving to bigger clubs next season and I hope Axel has some prospects lined up to replace them.
CD Prior
I don’t want to jinx it but there is a pretty good chance we end up with multiple trophies this year.
Voyageurs we are favorites as three time defending champs.
Cascadia we are off to a good start with stomping Portland on opening day (although they have definitely rebounded since then)
It isn’t quite a coin toss, but it’s a 90 minute showdown with Cruz Azul for a CCL Trophy.
Supporters Shield and MLS Cup are there for the taking. We haven’t locked anything in yet, but we also are the early favorites. Or at least amongst the early favorites.
And we still have a DP slot (or two young DPs) if Schuster gets permission to go all in from ownership. I think we have have a decent amount of TAM for a trade too.
Yes!…DP slot (or two young DPs)
Jinxed.
Quote- And we still have a DP slot (or two young DPs) if Schuster gets permission to go all in from ownership.
wont happen until there are new owners
i had placed the Caps to finish between #7-11 spot, a difference of 3-5 points- i never saw this coming… and i am happy about that- its nice to have positive surprises
ITS BEEN A GREAT SPORTING RIDE !
now we know how the Leicester City fans felt during their championship run 2015-2016; after a hot start, every pundit saw a crash coming after Xmas… but it never came
i am not saying we will win the MLS Cup, BUT we are in the running… and that sure feels good to say- the pinching has stopped and now the believing has begun
and did Axel luck out with Jesper Sorensen or was he a genius in hiring him? Jesper has taken every- and i mean every- player up 1-2 levels in their play- and no matter what league you do it in, that is an outstanding bit of coaching and player explosion
it will be interesting to see how Jesper re-integrates Ryan Gauld back into the line-up in a week or 2- the good news for Ryan is that he isnt responsible for carrying the Team… the Team is carrying itself
Salty
It may be too simplistic, but I think when people enjoy their job, they are more productive and more eager to do everything they can to excel. Sports are no different than any other career.
All the players on this team did something right along the way to get where they are now. Someone believed in them, and they believed in themselves, and they took pride in their individual accomplishments.
There is an abundance of research that proves when people, children and adults, are criticized repeatedly and not given choices they lose their confidence and their joy.
The reasons can be debated, but this team found its confidence and the players are once again experiencing the joy that made them love the sport to begin with.
Nothing is guaranteed in this life, and the season is far from over, but I, for one, would not bet against this team.
They have found their mojo.
well said – i was never a fan of Sartini- his hyperbolic communications would eventually wear thin with the veterans and drain the energy and belief from the Team- if you remember, we lost the last 5 home games and that is a deep, deep concern of underlying problems– and Axel agreed- THANKFULLY!!
Jesper- whatever he is doing and how he communicates- gives the Team energy and belief– and that now is transferring to the fan base – its been a long 14 years, so enjoy the ride
Salty
The coach deserves more credit here. So excited for Ryan’s return– but nervous that we lose Vite and possibly Ocampo and Sebastian. I don’t remember a Whitecaps season this much fun and I wanted to go on and on– 2029 Club World Cup!
it was like this in 1978-1979 during the Whitecaps famous NASL Soccer Bowl run to the Championship – a 100 000 parade topped it all off
Salty