The Vancouver Whitecaps have a quick turn around following their titanic 2-0 win over Inter Miami. Their match against Minnesota United will be one of the most difficult to manage of the season so far.

Minnesota are very good. How good they are has perhaps been overshadowed a little bit by the Whitecaps’ dominance (surely the first time in their modern history the Whitecaps have overshadowed anyone). But United are a wagon. American soccer analysis has them with an expected goal difference of +0.62/game, which is MLS cup contender level stuff. It’s not quite as good as Vancouver’s +1.2/game but still, this is a very dangerous team.

The core of their success are the attacking triumvirate of Tani Oluwaseyi, Kelvin Yeboah, and Joaquin Pereyra. Each of these three players is putting up heroic offensive numbers. Minnesota plays a 5-3-2, with Oluwaseyi and Yeboah as a striker partnership and Pereyra as an attacking #8. Wing-backs Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Joseph Rosales also provide a danger going forward. On the defensive side of things, Dayne St. Clair is absolutely crushing his expected goals against.

Minnesota don’t really have a clear weakness. ASA’s G+ model suggests that perhaps the whoever rotates into the third centre-back spot alongside Michael Boxall and Nicolas Romero could be a weak spot. Carlos Harvey, Morris Duggan, and and Jefferson Diaz are all below average on G+, but only slightly so. There’s no two ways about it, beating this team on the road and on short rest (especially after the emotional high of the Miami game) is going to be really hard.

I don’t think anyone would blame Vancouver for rotating heavily for this game. But Jesper Sørensen does not seem like the type of guy who likes to do that. I imagine we will see at least some rotation but how far does it go? Do we see some of the squad guys who have gotten relatively few minutes like Isaac Boehmer, Belal Halbouni, and Bjorn Utvik? Or will there just be a few J.C. Ngandos and Ralph Prisos rotated in? As good as Minnesota are, the Whitecaps do have better underlying stats than them.

All things being equal, I would back Vancouver to win at home and give them a fighting chance on the road. But the home-field tilt that exists in MLS and only two days of rest are going to make things very difficult. But every other time I have said to myself “well this might be a bridge too far for the Whitecaps” they have pulled through (except the Chicago game). So, I guess we’ll see, but personally, I wouldn’t be too pressed if Vancouver came up short here.