After last week’s sensational pair of results, the Vancouver Whitecaps head to Western Conference rivals St. Louis City SC in MLS action, as they look to secure a third consecutive league victory.
Starting by looking at Vancouver’s hosts, as although St. Louis have lost their last 4 matches and sit 12th in the West, they will pose a challenge for the Whitecaps and should not be underestimated.
Olof Mellberg’s side have been defensively solid so far this season, as they kept clean sheets in their opening 4 matches and they have only conceded 6 goals in total, which is the joint best record in the Western Conference. Unfortunately for them, they have lost the 4 matches since, including a 2-0 loss against rivals Sporting Kansas City and a 2-1 defeat to Columbus Crew in their last outing, which leaves them outside the playoffs after 8 games.
So, what has gone wrong for St Louis? Well, they have the fourth lowest successful passing rate in the league, with the second lowest amount of completed passes. Their long ball average is in the bottom third of the division, and when combining these statistics together I think their vulnerabilities can be exposed by applying a pressing game not dissimilar to the one we saw Vancouver use against Austin.
St. Louis have also struggled for goals so far this season, having only scored 5 in MLS. Part of this has been due to prioritising defensive solidarity, they lined up with 5 centre backs and 3 defensive midfielders in their match against Austin, but part of the problem has been an inability to convert chances. Their xG for the season is 9.94, meaning they have scored half as many goals as they are expected to. Any team underperforming that low of an xG by that much will inevitably find themselves struggling.
City have lined in a 3-4-2-1 formation across this season, and they will probably do so again. Benjamin Lundt will likely continue to start in goal as former Borussia Dortmund keeper Roman Burki recovers from an injury, and he’ll be behind Henry Kessler and Timo Baumgartl, who returned to the side against Columbus Crew.
Wingbacks Kyle Hiebert and Conrad Wallem have both played in every game this season, and they will be important to nullifying the threat the Whitecaps pose on the wings. DP Eduard Löwen has missed St Louis’ last two matches due to personal reasons, but he may be available to join fellow German Marcel Hartel in midfield. Striker Joao Klauss scored his first MLS goal since May 2024 to open the scoring against Columbus, meaning he will likely be given the starting shirt ahead of former Whitecaps forward Simon Becher.
Turning over to Vancouver, and I know by now it’s getting repetitive, but I feel that the brilliance of last week shows just how much potential this Whitecaps squad has. I have dug out a thesaurus to try to avoid repeating word for word what has so often been said on here, but the praise is so well deserved that I feel it should be said again.
Firstly, the mentality they showed to come from behind against Pumas was outstanding. Conceding a goal to put you behind and out of the Champions Cup in the 88th minute is devastating. Everyone thought Pumas had won it, their players, fans, staff and even the commentators. For the Whitecaps to suffer that blow, and yet still be confident enough to avoid panicking, and then to pick their heads up, go up the other end and stun the hosts, is quite something and it’s the sign of a team that will go far.
To follow the high of that win with another one, by battering Austin 5-1, shows exactly why I think this is a team with serious potential. Despite having just flown a 5000-mile roundtrip, Vancouver showed no signs of fatigue as they dominated their opponents. Brian White continued his fine form by scoring 4 goals past the team who previously were MLS’ best defence, as the Whitecaps ran riot.
When I was watching that game I couldn’t tell if Vancouver were good or Austin were just bad, but given that we’ve said that about 4 or 5 opposition teams already this season, I think we can confidently say that the Whitecaps are playing very well right now.
Onto Saturday’s match then, and with a healthy 4-point lead at the top of the Western Conference and that crucial Champions Cup Semifinal against Inter Miami midweek, I anticipate that Sørensen may look to rotate. Emmanuel Sabbi has been electric since he joined up with the squad, and I expect him to continue alongside Brian White in attack. Daniel Rios has yet to find his top form, but he may be given another opportunity to show his ability if Vite and Ahmed are given a rest.
From his performances so far, the Whitecaps’ front office must be considering if it is worth offering Vite a new deal which uses the DP slot that they have open. The Ecuadorian has been one of my favourite players so far this season, and his versatility across attack and midfield is a useful asset, plus his contract expires at the end of the year and the Whitecaps risk being forced to sell him for a cut price deal in the summer or lose him for free.
In midfield Cubas can be expected to start, whilst Sebastian Berhalter has played in every game this season and so will likely join him. JC Ngando has been a revelation this season and has slotted seamlessly into the midfield rotation, whilst Jeevan Badwal and Ralph Priso have also largely impressed when given opportunities, giving Sørensen plenty of options to ponder.
It’s tough to change a winning defence, and given the absences of Adekugbe and Laborda, I imagine Takaoka will be protected by Johnson, Veselinovic, Blackmon, and Ocampo once again. Veselinovic and Blackmon look to be an elite MLS CB pair, whilst the form of both Johnson and Ocampo means that it will be tough to drop either of them from the lineup even when Adekugbe and Laborda return.
Nevertheless, that is a headache that Sørensen will be delighted to have. His side have been on fire this season, topping the MLS Supporters Shield table, with the highest number of goals scored and joint least goals conceded, all whilst playing a style of football that is capturing the imagination of Whitecaps fans.
Given St. Louis’ defensive record and an excellent home atmosphere, I predict that this game will be a tight one. However, I expect the Whitecaps will find a way to breach the defence and win the game 2-0, to continue the winning run.
(Images: St. Louis City & Tav Morrison)