The Vancouver Whitecaps will attempt to preserve their CONCACAF Champions Cup hopes on Thursday at BC Place, seeking to overturn a 2-1 deficit heading into the home leg of the tie with Saprissa.

With just seconds left on the clock last week, the Caps were seemingly cruising to a solid 1-1 result, one in which they left some chances on the table but still managed to secure a crucial away goal.

But the team switched off on a late throw-in in the attacking third and Saprissa pounced, nabbing a late winner to give the Costa Rican side an advantage heading back to Vancouver.

The result doesn’t doom the Caps’ chances but it does complicate things. Now, a 0-0 draw isn’t good enough to ensure Vancouver advances. If they win, they must do so 1-0 or by multiple goals; a 2-1 result would go to extra time.

According to Wyscout data kicking around our The Third Sub group chat, Saprissa actually outgunned the Caps in terms of expected goals in the first leg. That was a bit surprising, as they were largely toothless in the first half and relied on a very direct style of play throughout.

That directness (including old friend Kendall Waston at centerback) did enough to paper over some of the cracks in this injury-riddled team, whose form has them sitting fourth in the league table.

You’d expect them to rely on the same system in Vancouver. Scoring at BC Place would put Vancouver up against it if they want to advance but Saprissa won’t want to concede much ground and give away their slim advantage. The habitual tactical fouling (aka peak CONCACAF stuff) will likely make an appearance as well.

Saprissa followed up their late winner with a win over 9th placed Sporting in the league, with match winner Ariel Rodriguez back on the scoresheet.

Looking at their league form, Saprissa have struggled both to consistently score goals and to keep them out, ranking in the middle of the pack on both fronts.

That suggests plenty of opportunity for the Caps to build on their 4-1 thrashing of Portland Timbers over the weekend and turn this tie around.

Jesper Sorensen will have a number of lineup decisions to make for this one. That includes whether he starts Ali Ahmed, who looked dangerous in Costa Rica, or instead turns back to Jayden Nelson, who tortured Portland to the tune of three assists and a goal on Sunday.

Pedro Vite was taken off early on Sunday, potentially with an eye towards this match, as was Andres Cubas. And all of the defenders, plus striker Brian White, have gone the full 90 minutes in each of the first few matches.

The Caps’ struggles in Costa Rica centered largely on shaking off the rust, with their few defensive lapses related more to switching off than anything else. They also looked less than sharp in front of goal, even as they created plenty of chances (including a free header for Mathias Laborda to bury the tie). This was largely the product, one imagines, of it being their first competitive match and one that came after a cross-continental trip.

I wouldn’t necessarily call their finishing on Sunday clinical but it clearly was good enough to blow by a 10 man Portland side. The only real concern is Brian White’s difficulties in front of goal, though White moved much better and looked much more engaged with the match on Sunday.

Lest we forget, however, that White has had these dry spells in the past, only to start pouring in goals with regularity. I’d expect him to be one of the first names on the team sheet for Thursday and it wouldn’t surprise me if he scores to boot.

The Caps left themselves with much more work than they really needed at home. But Saprissa now will be the ones forced to travel across much of North America on short rest and they also will have to deal with the turf and environment of BC Place. Plus, the Caps have all the confidence after their first MLS win.

Saprissa certainly knows how to make things interesting, reversing a first leg defeat in 2024 against Philadelphia, only to lose in extra time. But 2022 gives the Caps a clear reason for hope. After drawing with Pumas 2-2 in Costa Rica, the Mexican side won 4-1 at home to bury the tie.

I expect Vancouver will come out guns blazing on Thursday in a bid to follow this blueprint. As the Portland match proved, this is a team with plenty of firepower and a bit of a new identity under Sorensen. We’ll see if it will be enough to advance to face Monterrey.