The Vancouver Whitecaps have just re-repatriated Canadian international Jayden Nelson. Nelson, 22,  has bounced around in Europe for a few seasons after getting his start with Toronto F.C. But is Nelson actually good? Allow me to answer that question with a question: good at what?

The thing is, Nelson undeniably does some useful stuff. In his one full MLS season, back in 2022, his dribbling and passing look pretty solid. He was in the 92nd percentile for successful take-ons, the 77th percentile for carrying distance, and around the middle of the pack in the various progressive carrying stats amongst attacking midfielders and wingers. For a 19-year-old on a desperately bad Toronto F.C. side, this is all pretty encouraging stuff.

In that same season, Nelson also rated quite highly in terms of the number of defensive actions he took compared to attacking midfielders and wingers. This will have been partly down to TFC being truly hopeless that season but it also belays a strong work ethic and a willingness to track back.

But there’s another pretty important aspect for attacking players and that is scoring goals. How did Nelson perform on that front? Not good! He averaged 0.16 xG+xA/90 which is very bad even considering his age and the strength of the team he was playing on. It literally put him in the 1st percentile for attacking midfielders and wingers that season, just 0.03 xG+xA/90 better than the worst performing player to play at least 450 minutes.

So, Nelson left MLS a player who was doing a decent job of moving the ball closer to the opposition goal but not able to make much happen once he got there. So, the question then becomes, has he changed during his time in Europe? The stats suggest; not really. First, let’s take a look at his 2023 season in Norway with Rosenborg.

Once again, we see a player who is doing a fair amount to move the ball forward. He’s well above average in progressive carries and the various Wyscout passing metrics like him a lot. But 0.38 xG+xA/90 is pretty pedestrian. What really stands out to me is the low number of shots Nelson was generating, just 1.89 shots per 90. Also, his defensive metrics were day down, not sure what happened there. It may represent a change in how he was deployed or maybe Wyscout’s methods of tracking this stuff didn’t like him as much.

If we take a look at a highlights package from that same season, we see a lot of good running with the ball, winning a lot of fouls, and some fairly smart passing. But, considering it’s a highlights package, there are relatively few high-danger chances!

Nelson played part of the 2024 season with Rosenborg, mostly falling out of favour. His stats from that rump season paint more or less the same story. Some encouraging ball movement but very few shots for a primarily attacking player.

Nelson was loaned to SSV Ulm in the 2. Bundesliga but has struggled for game time there. 

If you want to take a maximally optimistic approach there is one factor worth considering. Nelson has never really played for a good team. Toronto was very bad when he played for them, his one full season at Rosenborg they finished 9th/16 and Ulm is currently fighting against relegation in the 2. Bundesliga. So, it’s possible that playing with Gauld, Armstrong, et al, could unlock a new level of scoring from him. I sort of doubt it but it could happen!

So, why do this at all? I think the answer is pretty simple, you need to field a team! The Whitecaps, at the time of writing, have 14 senior roster players and only one international slot. You need to fill at least 18 slots to avoid getting fined by the league (and also to have a functioning team, if we’re being honest). Let’s say you open up an extra international slot by loaning Giuseppe Bovalina. You then use those two international slots on a U-22 initiative player and a TAM player. Well, you still have two senior roster spots that need to be filled by domestic players. As we have discussed previously, there just aren’t that many reliable non-DP domestic attackers out there. So Nelson, who’s relatively young, whose value is probably at rock bottom right now, and who does at least do some useful stuff does make sense from that perspective. Plus, he’s Canadian so you can rotate him in for Voyageur’s Cup matches and he should have enough juice to do the business against a CPL team. 

In the long term, I think the best thing for Nelson is probably to find him a role deeper on the pitch. If Vanni Sartini were still the manager he would be a primo candidate to be converted into a wing-back. But considering the Whitecaps accidentally leaked a depth chart showing the team in a 4-3-2-1, I think box-to-box midfielder might be a more natural home for Nelson. Still, that’s a pretty crowded position at the moment so unless there’s an unexpected departure we’re probably going to see Nelson in the front three to start out with. I would be pretty surprised if he set the world on fire from that position but as long as there are other significant additions (and there are still three open senior slots so there’s every reason to believe there will be) it probably doesn’t matter that much.