Well it’s another off-season and that means it’s time for another overview of what I think the Whitecaps’ priorities should be. This is a particularly big off-season because, based on the age profile of the squad, I would say 2025 is Vancouver’s last chance to win something with this core group of players. When I say this, it makes it sound like I think a few tweaks mean a major trophy is guaranteed. So I want to be clear, I think the chance of the Whitecaps being the 2025 MLS champions is probably in the range of 3-5%. But that might be as good as it ever gets so let’s ride!

How Big is the Gap?

I have to be honest, I don’t have a good answer for this. If you just look at an 8th place finish and a first round exit it could be easy to conclude that the gap is huge. But there are some major factors that make things a lot more complicated. For one thing, that 8th place finish was, in part, a result of a terrible run of injuries and international call ups. I don’t think the Whitecaps deserved to finish that much higher than 8th but if Scotland doesn’t suddenly realize Ryan Gauld is good you’re probably going into a 3 game series against RSL instead of LAFC. The other major factor is Stuart Armstrong. Armstrong’s skill set very directly addressed Vancouver’s offensive shortcomings. He wasn’t really fit enough to have an impact until the playoffs. But the second the was fit enough the Whitecaps marked the Portland Timbers away from home and then outscored (though still lost to) LAFC in a three game series. The underlying data from that LAFC series is particularly interesting as in the 2023 edition of that matchup, LAFC blew Vancouver out of the water on xG and in 2024 it was damn near even. Given the massive home field tilt that exists in MLS, that is very impressive by the Whitecaps. It might be tempting from this evidence to go the other way, and say that the gap is tiny. But that would be just as goofy because four games is not enough to draw strong conclusions (plus, you know, they did lose at the end of the day).

It’s hard to set specific targets with the data available, so maybe it makes more sense to look at where you could make individual improvements and just try to make as many gains as you can. Love that specific advice!

Roster Spots:

So, when thinking about changes to the team, we have to look at what might be going out.

I think declining Alessandro Schöpf’s option is the most obvious move of all time. He is far from the worst midfielder to ever suit up for the Whitecaps but he doesn’t even come close to justifying a 992k cap hit. This would also free up a valuable international slot.

A more difficult question to consider is whether to re-sign Fafa Picault. Picault’s 2024 season was excellent. He contributed to a lot of goals and the underlying data shows it was not a fluke. But there’s a bit of a twist. Here is a graph from a 2016 stats-bomb article by Colin Trainor. The chart shows how, on average, winger’s offensive output declines as they age:

As you can see production tends to peak at around age 26 and undergo a slow decline thereafter. Here is another chart showing Fafa Picault’s non-penalty xG+xA/90 over the season fbref has data for.

That’s not what’s supposed to happen! What are the odds that it happens two season in a row? As hard as it is, it’s not a risk I would be willing to spend 670k to take. I can’t imagine Picault would be willing to take a discount after the season he just had so I think the sensible choice may be to let him walk.

Another player out of contract is Ryan Raposo. I would rather keep him because, despite his foibles, he’s an effective shot generator from wing-back and he’s Canadian which is particularly valuable for such an international heavy team. He’s likely due a raise on his 155k salary, I think I’d be willing to go up to around 400k.

Damir Kreilach is under contract for 2025 but he plays so little I don’t think you can justify a senior roster spot for him. 440k is not insignificant but it’s low enough you could probably buy him out without too much pain if he doesn’t retire.

Deiber Caicedo is another interesting conundrum. The Whitecaps have an option for him 2025. He looked pretty decent in the minutes he did play but the Whitecaps did not seem that eager to integrate him as he gained fitness. If you can get close to breaking even on him I would probably sell to open up a U-22 and international slot but I wouldn’t be desperate to offload him.

The only other senior player on an option is Yohei Takaoka. There have been some suggestions of dropping him and giving Boehmer the starting spot. But I don’t know, Boehmer has looked good (one bad moment aside) in his first team appearances but there’s only been 11 of them. That’s not enough to know for sure if he’s good enough! Takaoka might have frustrating moments from time to time but he’s consistently matched or beaten his xG against throughout his career. He’s not an elite MLS goalkeeper but you get a high degree of certainty that he won’t be the reason your team which should have finished 3rd finishes 7th.

The Whitecaps do have some players who might draw interest from elsewhere. I’d say Tristan Blackmon (trade), Ranko Veselinovic, Pedro Vite and possibly Andres Cubas stand out in this regard (amongst senior roster players). In each case you would have to weigh how much you were getting back could contribute to the team winning in 2025 versus just having the player. All are under contract or at least have an option for 2026 so there’s no rush to sell any of them.

The supplemental roster is less exciting since it’s mostly for MLSNP graduates or very low salary players. But there is one important name on that list, Ali Ahmed. Ahmed on a supplemental contract is probably the best deal in the entire league. But he’s already made his desire to play abroad known and I 100% believe the reports that there is interest in him. S0, on a player morale level, you are probably going to have to either sell him or give him a new contract that bumps him up to the senior roster. I would want serious cash for him because an above average starter who is Canadian and doesn’t count against the cap is just insanely valuable in MLS.

I also think Max Anchor took a big enough step this year that the emergency adult goalkeeper is no longer needed, so I wouldn’t bring Joe Bendik back either. What do you do with that spot? Probably nothing that exciting. First team deal for Finn Linder or Jay Herdman? Re-integrate J.C Ngando? Snag Noah Abatneh out of CPL? I don’t know, it probably doesn’t matter that much to next season’s outlook.

There are two supplemental players on options, Ralph Priso and Levonte Johnson. Both are pretty obvious pick ups to me (and you can fight me if you disagree).

So, following my advice, before any sales you are left with this:

• 3 open senior spots (1 possibly being filled by Ahmed)
• 2 open supplemental spots
• 1 open international slot
• About 1.85 million in cap space (say about 15% goes to various raises from picking up options or extending players and it falls to around 1.57)

Potential sales through a bit of a spanner into the works. The Whitecaps have three DPs so it’s not like if they make 10 million selling Vite, Ahmed, and Caicedo they can turn around and sign a 10 million-dollar player (at least not this season). MLS allows teams to convert up to 3 million generated from sales into GAM per season. So you could potentially make some big non-DP additions either by making trades or bringing in more expensive players from outside the league. That extra GAM might also mean the Whitecaps are in more of a position to buy international slots from other teams.

Speaking of GAM: is it possible to buy down Andres Cubas’ contract? This is not a rhetorical question, I am seriously asking. The Whitecaps’ roster profile seems to indicate it isn’t possible but he’s only making 1.1 Million and has signed a new contract so, unless I’m mistaken, his transfer fee shouldn’t apply to his cap hit anymore. Still, for this article, we’re going to assume the roster profile is correct and it isn’t possible to buy Cubas down.

So, basically, I see the possible paths the Whitecaps could take as existing on a spectrum. On one end of the spectrum, we have “no sales” where the focus is going to have to be on finding value with a stronger emphasis on domestic players. At the other end, we have “lots of sales” where the Whitecaps can buy more international slots (and therefore more international players), and the players coming in are closer to the DP threshold. Either way, it’s not possible to add DPs (I assume) but it’s a matter of if the non-DPs are more Julian Gressel or Sebastian Berhalter.

Areas of Relative Weakness:

The Whitecaps returned to the 4-3-2-1 formation to finish the year. I am skeptical of a narrative that says if they had just played this formation the whole year then they would have performed much better. I think the success of this formation has more to do with getting the most out of Stuart Armstrong than it does unlocking some hidden potential that was laying dormant under the surface. Still, Armstrong is here now so the Whitecaps should plan to maximize him. So we will assume the 4-3-2-1 is here to stay. Based on how Sartini used players below is what you could probably consider being their first and second-choice XI under a no-sales scenario. The number in brackets is from American Soccer Analysis’ G+ model, comparing the players to the average player in their position. I’ve only included that number if the player played enough minutes for the number to be meaningful.

Now, in addition to the numbers we can apply some human logic to decide where the priorities should be. For example, G+ does not like Andres Cubas. But he’s getting dinged for “receiving” and “shooting” things that just do not matter for his role. Tristan Blackmon though, seems like a player you need to make a decision with. He has a strong reputation in the league and his domestic status boosts his value. He’s also 28, so this would be the time to cash in. But then you need to consider that the team is already very international heavy and I don’t really see any domestic centre-backs who are both get-able and definitely good enough to play big MLS minutes. There’s obviously a pretty big hole in the front three if you’re ditching Picault that would need to be filled. So, in terms of starting level players, I would say a forward who is not necessarily a centre-forward and a ball-playing centre-back potentially emerge as priority areas. 

When looking at depth, things seem pretty strong in the midfield. It doesn’t really matter which of Vite or Ahmed starts more frequently, both are strong options that provide different looks in midfield. Berhalter is a nice Swiss army knife and Ralph Priso established himself as a guy you can be a non-liability in MLS as the season progressed. Plus you can never forget JC Ngando is still floating around out there! Boehmer has shown enough in goal that you can be confident in him as a backup. Utvik and Halbouni seem like about as good as you can ask for in backup centre-backs. 

I don’t think it really makes sense to think of fullbacks in terms of “left” and “right” under Sartini. Rather, I think it makes more sense to think of them in terms of “attacking” and “defensive.” Attacking fullbacks basically play as wide midfielders in attack while defensive fullbacks tuck in to make a back-3. Adekugbe put up pretty huge expected assists numbers as an attacking fullback but he was also being used in a defensive fullback role against LAFC. Behind him, things are pretty crowded with Edier Ocampo, Giuseppe Bovalina, and Ryan Raposo all vying for minutes. Whereas on the defensive side of things, there’s really nobody other than Mathias Laborda. 

The backup front three is the island of misfit toys. I don’t really know what the plan is for Caicedo, though I think he can have a positive impact. I think Johnson and NFC are strong options as third-choice attacking players but on the weak side as straight-up back-ups. 

So, overall, I think we can identify the following areas as needing improvement:

1. An attacking player who is not necessarily a centre-forward
2. A defensive player who can play in the centre of defence but could also be deployed out wide
3. A second reliable centre forward. 
4. Replacements for anyone you sell 

Markets:

I won’t keep you for too much longer but I did want to briefly touch on the challenge of making improvements with no open DP or U22 spots (subject to change). Every year the MLSPA publishes the player’s salaries. But those numbers are not necessarily the same thing as the players’ cap hit because transfer fees also count against the cap, with the fee being divided between the years of the player’s contract. So with somewhat limited cap space available, there are two types of players you’re going to be targeting more. The first type is free agents. Here are some notable nations that run on a January-December calendar and will have players out of contract in MLS’ primary window:

Brazil
Norway
Sweden
Japan
Korea
Uruguay
Ecuador
Chile

The other type of player you might be looking at are players who are dominating less prestigious leagues where the clubs cannot demand big transfer fees. You would be gambling that these players have a high enough level that they can take a couple of steps up to MLS. Some examples of nations/regions you might target with this kind of recruitment:

Australia
Central America
Eastern Europe and Eurasia
Lower divisions of more prestigious footballing nations (E.G, League 1, 3. Bundesliga, Brazilian Serie B/C, etc)

In addition to these, you also have to consider MLS free agency and the draft.