Well, this is it. Wednesday night in Portland, the eight-seed Vancouver Whitecaps will face the nine-seed Portland Timbers at Providence Park with a shot of booking a place in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs against LAFC.

As much as the run to the finish line has been a real struggle for both these teams, they’ll each have the opportunity to flip the script Wednesday, as a win over a Cascadian rival would give either team a lot more confidence than they have currently. While Vancouver is on a four match losing streak heading into this contest, the Timbers are winless in their last five, though they have managed to pick up four points over that stretch.

For the Timbers, it’s all about what they can do in the final third. Evander is a front-runner in the MVP race, and he’s deserved all the plaudits he’s received. The Brazilian has amassed 30 primary goal contributions (15 G, 15 A) in 28 matches played, and he’s really upped his contributions as a play initiator this season. 2023 Evander was known for speculative long shots and ridiculous free kicks, and make no mistake, he’s still doing that in 2024. However, his passing and crossing has really become a threat this year, and it’s made everyone around him that much better for it.

Evander is backed up by a host of other dangerous attacking weapons. Jonathan Rodríguez, after years in Liga MX, has had a very strong first season in Portland with 14 goals and 5 assists. Beyond that, Felipe Mora has also had a resurgent campaign, his best in MLS, with 16 goals and 2 assists. Both Mora and Rodríguez have profited from Evander’s threat from distance, while Evander has benefited from having two clinical strikers to target in the box. All of this goes to say that Portland can score in bunches, so the Whitecaps will have to be wary of that threat.

At the other end of the pitch, Portland is less impressive. Though they’ve had better performances late-on this season, the Timbers are a team that concede goals in bunches. Of the playoff teams in the West, only Colorado has conceded more goals, and the Timbers full-backs, Juan Mosquera and Claudio Bravo can often leave Kamal Miller and Dario Župarić on an island defensively. As mentioned, the Timbers have been better since they’ve settled on Župarić as Miller’s permanent partner in a back four, but there will undoubtedly be moments where the Whitecaps can look to expose the space between lines as the Timbers throw bodies forward in attack.

Looking at the Whitecaps specifically, there’s no more time for squad rotation and saving tired legs, so you have to imagine that Portland will get the absolute best of what the Vancouver Whitecaps have to offer. The question is, what exactly is their strongest XI? While Yohei Takaoka and Ranko Veselinovic are no-doubters, I do wonder if Bjorn Inge Utvik will be dropped in favour of Mathias Laborda, especially after Laborda was rested on decision day.

In the midfield, there’s little doubt that Andres Cubas will start, but otherwise, I would imagine we will see some combination of Pedro Vite and/or Sebastian Berhalter alongside him. Out wide, I think we see one, if not both, of Canadian Internationals Sam Adekugbe and Ali Ahmed.

Finally up front, White and Gauld are locked-in. However, I think things might be a bit open ended beyond that. Vanni Sartini could simply opt for a 3-5-2 shape, or he could favour a 3-4-3 with either Fafa Picault or Stuart Armstrong starting as the third forward. With Picault’s recent struggles, I think there’s an interesting question as to whether or not he’s better suited to start or come off the bench as an impact sub against Portland, especially if Armstrong is not quite ready for a full 90, and Picault’s pace might be more impactful against tired legs.

Regardless of tactical shape and Starting XI, I think the mission for the Whitecaps is pretty clear. They are a better team than Portland from box to box, but they have to find a way to contain Portland’s attacking threat and avoid individual errors. Controlling the game in possession is probably Vancouver’s best route to do that, especially if you can get the Timbers chasing. I think that if the Whitecaps can do that successfully, chances will come naturally, and if Vancouver’s best players perform as they can, goals will follow.

(Image Credit: Portland Timbers/Mark Zhuang)