By Alexandre Gangue-Ruzic and Samuel Rowan

Saturday afternoon against Minnesota United, the Vancouver Whitecaps dropped their second consecutive match at BC Place, slipping into the dreaded play-in seeds for the MLS Playoffs with just two matches remaining.

Simply put, Vanni Sartini’s side has gone slumping at the worst possible time, as their top four expectations have quickly vanished, instead replaced with the goal of getting back into the top seven in order to secure at least two playoff games including one home playoff date (not as much of a feat as it used to be, with MLS’s new bloated playoff format).

Hassani Dotson is as cool as you like from the spot! 🔥@MNUFC take an early lead.

📺 #MLSSeasonPass: https://t.co/eSufqxxNZD pic.twitter.com/7IbOOF7ydl

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 6, 2024

The match itself was headlined by a number of questionable officiating decisions (which we will dive into, don’t worry), but ultimately, Vancouver did not play well enough to overcome the adversity they faced. This was especially disappointing given the supposed strength of the starting XI the Whitecaps fielded for this match.

It’s hard not to be deeply concerned about the way this team is playing at the most critical time of year, so without further ado, here are three thoughts, as we saw it from inside BC Place Saturday afternoon.

Were the Whitecaps hard done by the refereeing?

It just wouldn’t be a Whitecaps game without some referee talk.

Vanni Sartini certainly wasn’t pleased – he earned a yellow after the game for letting his thoughts be known to the officials on what he thought of the game, and then said after the game that they had a “bad night”.

Were his comments fair, however?

Certainly, it felt like the Whitecaps were on the wrong end of most 50-50 calls on the night.

First, there was the Minnesota penalty. There is no doubt that Mathías Laborda made contact with Carlos Harvey, and it should’ve been whistled for a foul of some sort.

For it to be given directly as a penalty, however, seemed a bit of a surprise. It was a hard call to make in real-time, as it wasn’t exactly a clear or obviously a penalty. Unfortunately for the Whitecaps, though, that the call was given in real time then made it hard to rescind through VAR – that the VAR booth spent over three minutes mulling over the call before not even calling the referee, Ramy Touchan, shows that.

🤔 pic.twitter.com/ivnbwclZJq
— X – Vancouver Whitecaps FC (@WhitecapsFC) October 6, 2024

Then, not long after that, the Whitecaps had a goal wiped out, as Sam Adekugbe slashed home a volley that deflected in for what appeared to be an own goal. Upon review, however, the goal didn’t stand, as it was determined that Ryan Gauld committed a foul right before Adekugbe’s shot.

That one was quite a surprise to see, as Gauld didn’t seem to make much contact with Sang-Bin Jeong, if at all. Ultimately, it was determined he did, even if the replays available made it hard to suggest a supposed foul he committed was a ‘clear and obvious’ error.

Lastly, the big talking point came at the end of the game, as on one of the last kicks of the match, Ryan Raposo appeared to get taken down in Minnesota’s box.
To be honest, that call was a true 50-50 – there was no doubt that there was contact on Raposo, but how much contact was up in the air.

Yet, the big question is if the Laborda contact was confidently given as a penalty in real-time, given that it was of a similarly contentious nature, why wasn’t Raposo’s? Had it been a clear and obvious error, it could’ve been rescinded upon review, but instead, it wasn’t even looked at.

Let’s be honest – the Whitecaps probably didn’t deserve to pull back a point via a late spot-kick. Based on how they looked offensively, it would’ve been a “get out of jail free” card type of decision.

At the same time, they can feel quite disappointed with how the officiating decisions went.

But that’s a question that MLS has right now – how to best use VAR? Is it better to err on the side of caution of 50/50 calls and let the VARs intervene if they feel they missed something? Or is it better to be more aggressive with calls, and then use VAR to determine whether a decision was too harsh?

Ultimately, they seem to toe the line between the two schools of thought, and that manifested itself throughout this game. For a slumping Whitecaps team looking for any sliver of momentum, that ended up being a big obstacle for them as they tried to pick up a morale-boosting victory. -Alex.

Where are the goals?

Now winless in five MLS games (and without an outright win in six straight games in all competitions when including their PK shootout win over Toronto FC), it’s easy to identify what’s left down the Whitecaps across this stretch – their attack.

Despite their struggles across that six-game stretch, they’ve still kept one clean sheet, and held three other opponents to one goal, with losses to the LA Galaxy and the Seattle Sounders where they conceded a combined seven goals being the lone two games where they struggled defensively.

Offensively, however, things have dried right up – after getting shut out today, the third time in four games where they’ve been held scoreless, they have just four goals across this six-game stretch, with two of those being rather meaningless goals against the Galaxy.

And, more worryingly, is that the chances aren’t flowing, either, as it’s not like the Whitecaps are playing well offensively and not getting luck – they’re not doing enough offensively right now.

I can’t remember the Whitecaps going through a rougher stretch of football than this (aesthetically) under Vanni Sartini.

Been really tough to watch since the second half of the Portland match, and the Can Champ itself wasn’t very good either, outside the result. #VWFC

— The Third Sub (@The3rdSub) October 6, 2024

This game might’ve been their worst of that six-game stretch, which is worrying as they put out about as strong of an attacking lineup as they could’ve, sans the suspended Fafà Picault, as they deployed Ryan Gauld, Stuart Armstrong, Ali Ahmed, Sam Adekugbe, Brian White and Pedro Vite.

Unlike in their last two games, where they were without Gauld and Ahmed, that was about as good of a group as they could put out, as it’d have been hard to figure out where Picault might’ve fit into this group even if available (perhaps for Armstrong as the new Whitecaps arrival continues to struggle to meet the pace of the game as he works towards full fitness).

Despite putting out such a strong group, however, it didn’t yield the desired result – despite trailing from the 24th minute onwards, they generated just nine shots, with only two of them reaching the target, for a total of 0.58 xG.

Given the quality of the players on the pitch, it was felt they had the potential to blow the game wide-open, but instead, they never seemed to get going. What was most worrying was that everything seemed incredibly disjointed, too, as everyone’s touch was heavy, the movement off the ball was lacking, and the chemistry non-existent.

Yet, this is a big problem the Whitecaps will need to solve ahead of the playoffs. For the most part, this team remains quite good defensively, but offensively, they’ve been middle of the pack all season in terms of goals scored and xG for.

The big reason for that, however? They continue to pursue the perfect chance offensively, as they try to get their looks as close to the goal as possible. That’s reflected statistically, as heading into this game they were bottom 10 in MLS in shot attempts, but they’re the top team in terms of their proximity to goal on shots, and second (only behind Inter Miami) in xG per shot.

When they shoot, it tends to be of the quality variety, and that’s not a bad thing.

The problem is, however, that it can be predictable to defend when teams know that the Whitecaps will try their best to enter the box, foregoing the chance to shoot from distance to do so.

This game was the textbook example of that, as Minnesota let the Whitecaps hold 63% of possession, but packed the middle of the box and dared them to beat them aerially. The Whitecaps were unable to do that, hence the low xG (their lone shot worth more than 0.10 xG was a 0.16 xG Ranko Veselinovic header that got blocked on a corner), and were never unable to vary their approach to try and break down the Loons low block.

Now, they’ll have to figure out a way to fix that. When everything clicks for the Whitecaps, they’ve had some fun sequences offensively – but they’ve also been prone to stretches like this one, where they don’t just struggle to score, but look out of ideas in the final third.

Heading into the playoffs, where everyone will know their strengths and weaknesses, and where teams tend to play a bit cagier, it’s going to be up to them to find ways to generate more chances and to be less predictable, as it could be the difference between an early elimination and making a run. – Alex

Worst Run in Recent Memory?

As I was sitting watching this match unfold, I wondered to myself if this was the worst we’ve seen a Vanni Sartini team look during his tenure in Vancouver.

I know that in terms of pure form, there have been leaner times – the start of the 2022 season for example. However, in terms of the way the Whitecaps look on the pitch, combined with where expectations are set, I think this is worse.

It feels like the Whitecaps sacrificed their MLS season to the soccer gods in order to win the Canadian Championship against Toronto. They didn’t deserve to win that cup final, but they found a way.

We didn’t know it at the time, but it looks like the cost of that match was massive. Gauld, White, Cubas, and Ahmed were all run ragged in that tie, and it does not look like any of them have fully recovered since. That’s not an excuse for the recent results, that’s just the state of affairs.

Fulltime at BC Place.

The Whitecaps mounted some pressure late with a litany of crosses, but very few high quality looks.

Vancouver will be asking for a lot against LAFC and RSL now.#VWFC

— The Third Sub (@The3rdSub) October 6, 2024

It looks like this team is running up a treadmill on a steep incline, every time they take a slight misstep, they fall flat on their face. Whether it’s been missed passes in the final third or conceding silly fouls in their own area, the Whitecaps have found every way to give away points.

Added to the struggle to find results, it’s not been particularly fun football to watch, either. The Whitecaps had some head-scratching moments in 2023, but at least they went out in style most of the time. These past four matches, however, the Whitecaps have looked rather limp and unimaginative, hurling low-percentage crosses into the box time after time after time, without much substance to show for it.

Finally, you can’t deny the fact that Vancouver’s transfer deadline acquisitions have yet to have the desired impact. Stuart Armstrong, through both fitness and tactical fit, has been less than the impact player the Whitecaps were looking for. Meanwhile, Edier Ocampo looks like a long-term project rather than a potential spark plug for the stretch run (which is not bad, asset management wise, but not exactly helpful right now).

All in all, the Whitecaps must be thankful for the short break that lies ahead. This break will be followed up, I hope, with some very focused days of training at UBC ahead of next weekend’s matchup against LAFC. There’s plenty of work to do. – Sam

This post was done in collaboration with Canadian Soccer Daily, who cover all things Canadian Soccer at https://canadiansoccerdaily.com