WFC2 has been on a bit of a tear lately. A key part of their recent good form has been Eliot Goldthorp, a 22-year-old wing-back who has registered 6 goals and 6 assists this season. Normally this is the sort of thing that would make Goldthorp a slam dunk for first-team consideration (indeed he’s already made a short leagues cup cameo). But there’s one complicating factor, he’s English. Signing him to a first-team deal requires an international slot and potentially blocks you from bringing in someone who’s proven at a higher level. Nevertheless, I think it’s healthy from an organizational point of view for top 2nd team players to get serious first-team look-ins. So I thought it would be worth looking at the two and a bit seasons of MLS Next Pro data we have to try and evaluate what good performances in MLSNP mean for potential MLS performances.

To do this, I had a look at American Soccer Analysis’ G+ model. I looked at the change in G+/game above average for 30 players who had played at least 500 minutes in both MLS and MLSNP.

Now, this method is a little bit fraught. For one thing, it’s not a huge sample size. There is also no accounting for differences in team strength (I.E if a player went from a really strong MLSNP team to a very weak MLS team). There were also players whose G+ numbers in MLSNP didn’t necessarily mark them out as ready for a step up but nevertheless managed to be effective MLS players (Simon Becher and Josh Atencio being prime examples). So, I’m not saying that the data below allows us to form any hard and fast rules. Clearly, there will always be a qualitative element to player evaluations. But I do think the data below is at least interesting and gives us a place to start. Without further ado, here’s the table!

First things first, the gap between MLSNP and MLS is absolutely massive. This is to be expected, I’m sure there’s a similar gap between first divisions and reserve leagues around the world. However, understanding the magnitude of the gap does put some of those gaudy MLSNP goal totals into perspective. Someone like Ali Ahmed, who was able to have a similar level of performance in MLS as he had in MLSNP is quite rare.

Interestingly, the players who maintained their performance the best tended to be players who came to MLSNP in their age 21 or 22 season. I would have imagined it would have been younger players who, by developing between seasons, would maintain their performance better. But, so far, it seems like this is more likely to happen for slightly older prospects. But it’s a pretty small sample size so who knows if this will hold up in the coming years.
The average change was -0.14. Again, I’m not saying this is a hard and fast rule but when evaluating MLSNP players we can safely expect a drop off of somewhere in that range.

Ok, there’s been a lot of numbers so far. Let’s think about what level of MLS performance we would want to justify using an international spot on a player. I think it’s fair to say you would at least want someone who is going to be regularly pushing for starting minutes. Or, if not that, someone with the potential to be one of the top players in MLS down the line. Goldthorp turns 23 in November so if he is going to make the jump to MLS it’s going to have to be on the strength of his current ability. Based on the table above that level of current ability would have to be one that lead to Goldthorp utterly dominating the league. If we use our -0.15 rule of thumb, we’d be looking for something in the range of +0.15 to +0.2. Players performing at a similar level in MLS, for a sense of scale, include Thiago Almada, Riqui Puig, and Dennis Bouanga. Goldthorp is currently sitting at +0.07, but if you only look at games over the last couple of months he’s more or less hitting the levels required. I think that’s too small of a sample size to say he’s definitely good enough but if he can keep it up until the end of the season, I’d say that’s enough to earn a spot.

As for domestic players, I think the bar should be set quite a bit lower. Really all you need from those guys is to be above replacement level in MLS. Obviously, if they are better than that it would be preferable and you don’t want to load your squad up with too many slightly above-replacement players, but every team is going to have a few guys who are there to make up the numbers and those players might as well be ones you developed.

A few interesting names popped up on my all-time MLSNP spreadsheet that I wanted to touch on (feel free to tap out now, this is bonus content). Firstly, the 10th-best MLSNP player by G+ El Mahdi Youssoufi is currently without a club. He’s 25, and an international so I understand why NYCFC didn’t sign him but surely he could be of use to someone.

There are also three Canadians in the top 100 MLSNP players who are either currently in League 1 Canada or without a club. These are Gurman Sangha (TSS Rovers), Reshaun Walkes (Vaughan Azzurri), and Stefan Karajavanovic (unattached having most recently played for Miramar Rangers in New Zealand). All three are in their mid-20s so any MLS prospects they may have passed but surely CPL teams should be taking a long look.

Speaking of New Zealand, Lucas Meek also appears in the top 100 MLSNP players and is currently scoring at a torrid pace in the New Zealand Central League for Western Suburbs. There has been some buzz locally that he ought to get a look in with one of the New Zealand-based A-League teams. I don’t know if I would quite go that far but it does show that players who get cut loose from MLSNP can be a good talent pool for teams over here to recruit from.