Well, we’ve reached the halfway point of the MLS season (it will probably be over the halfway point by the time this comes out) so I think it’s time to take stock of where the Whitecaps are at. Remember, folks, this was the “go for it” year where all of Vancouver’s best players were as good as they were ever going to be. So, are the Whitecaps on track to challenge for an MLS Cup?

Data:

As always, the first place to look is at the underlying data. The average MLS cup winner since 2011 has had a positive goal difference of 0.57 per game or about +19 over a full season. Past champions have scored an average of about 60 goals (1.7 per game) and conceded about 38 (1.13 per game). So if your underlying data is about on par with that you should be in good shape.

Now, there’s some disagreement between the two major public data providers for MLS. Fbref puts the Whitecaps at +0.13 expected goal difference per game (1.4 xG for/1.28 xG against). American Soccer Analysis actually has the Whitecaps with a -0.02  expected goal difference per game (1.3 xG for/1.32 against). I can’t be 100% sure what accounts for the discrepancy but the ASA guys have mentioned on their podcast that their model doesn’t account for goalkeeper positioning so if I had to guess I would say it’s that. But whatever it is, it’s inconsequential. Both models clearly point to a disappointing reality: The Whitecaps are not on track to challenge for an MLS cup. The primary reason for that is they don’t even come close to generating enough offense.

A Quick Word About Defence:

This article will mostly be about the offensive side of things but I did want to briefly touch on the defensive side of things. I think the Whitecaps’ defence is fine, despite them being a little off the previous champ target. This is because about 15% of the expected goals against in one huge outlier against LAFC. Is everything perfect? No. Are there individual moments of incompetence or the odd breakdown? Yes, it’s MLS. But for the most part, the Whitecaps have limited the number of high-danger scoring chances opponents have generated effectively. Therefore, defence would not be my priority.

Diagnosing the Problem on Offence:

So, once again, let’s go to the data to try and find the root cause of Vancouver’s offensive struggles. There’s no obvious on/off switch turned off. Vancouver is pretty mid in secondary offensive statistics like final 3rd and penalty box entries. There are two areas where they stand out though. Firstly, the Whitecaps lead the league in successful crosses into the box by *a lot.* This suggests, and I think this matches up pretty well with the eye test, that Vancouver’s attack is very focused down the wings. This is a bit problematic because crosses are a really inefficient way to score goals (there’s no shortage of literature out there if you’re interested). That’s not to say that having a lot of successful crosses is bad, but if it’s the only thing you have going for you that just isn’t going to get the job done.

The other thing the Whitecaps score relatively highly is xG per shot. To put it simply, the chances they do create tend to be quite dangerous but they don’t create enough chances. Again, I don’t think this is terribly out of sync with what we’ve seen watching the games. The 2024 Whitecaps are a lumbering heavyweight. Always looking for that one big right hand that’s going to send their opponent to sleep but not throwing a lot of volume. Those guys can get pretty far but they rarely win the belt.

Solutions:

The Whitecaps need more. They need to create more and a greater variety of chances. One tactical shift I have been interested in has been playing Ryan Gauld centrally underneath two strikers. With Gauld on the left of a front three things naturally get funneled out to the left. Gauld himself is not necessarily a big crosser but the overlapping run is going to be a natural option for him when he’s on the left. But playing Gauld underneath two strikers also presents some questions. First amongst these: Which two strikers? Brian White is one, obviously. Despite whinging about him missing chances or not being involved in the play enough, White has still been a really consistent chance generator for the ‘Caps. The Whitecaps don’t have any other strikers who have had over 0.35 xG+xA/90 in the past two MLS seasons. Plus Vanni Sartini said he was not happy with how the midfield functioned when the ‘Caps played that formation against New England.

So, if the Whitecaps are going to stick with either a 3-5-2 or a 3-4-3 then we’re probably looking at personnel changes. Fortunately, there’s about to be a big opportunity to make a splash. In the next transfer window MLS will relax its salary cap rules a little. Previously if teams wanted to sign three senior designated players (I see your eyes glazing over, there’s a point to all this) you could only sign one U-23 initiative player. But now clubs will be able to choose between 3 DPs+3U23s or 2DPs+4U23s+a bunch of extra GAM. The Whitecaps currently have 2 DPs (Gauld and Andres Cubas), one U23 player in the squad (Pedro Vite), and one U23 player on loan (Deiber Caicedo). So depending on how things play out with Caicedo they could have the opportunity to add up to three special players. The Whitecaps *must* capitalize on this opportunity if they are to get anything out of the “go for it” year.

Where to Make Additions:

I’m going to assume that the Whitecaps will go with the 2+4 model. Vanni Sartini said he expected that’s what they’d do in an interview recently and he would probably know. So we’re looking at 2-3 U-23s and maybe one high salary but a non-DP player thanks to the bonus GAM. I think a really good use for those U-23 spots would be to find young players who can be a facsimile of what Gauld and White can do. Obviously, you’re very unlikely to find someone *as good* as those guys (a 20-year-old who’s as good as Ryan Gauld right now probably isn’t coming to MLS). But if you can find somebody who does 70% of what Gauld and/or White do then it would mean those two aren’t un-rotatable. I’m pretty keen on Charleston Battery striker MD Myers, so you might not even need to use one of these spots on a backup striker. 

As for starting-level players, the Whitecaps need somebody who can create shots from central areas. The exact profile of that player could vary but there probably needs to be some element of ball progression. The Whitecaps are 15th in the league in passes into the penalty area and 26th in carries into the penalty area. Remember, their xG/shot is quite high so when they do get in the box they tend to create good chances; but they don’t get there enough! So they need somebody who’s going to get on the ball in the final 3rd and make things happen. I don’t think another low-touch poacher would be appropriate. There’s potentially some overlap with the player who is a facsimile for Gauld. 

Lastly, I think there’s a need for a bit more ball progression from deeper areas. The Whitecaps are 25th in progressive passes and 26th in progressive carries. Despite perceptions that it has been a down year for Pedro Vite, he’s still the team’s best ball progresser by a lot, averaging about 9.5 progressive actions per game. Ali Ahmed is also, unsurprisingly, by far the team’s best carrier of the ball. But other than those two guys, there’s not a lot going on. Assuming those two start, and you obviously have to start Andres Cubas so in a 3-4-3 that only leaves the wing-back position. In a 3-5-2 you could add another centre midfielder but it would have to be someone who was also providing significant end product as well. 

So to summarize, the Whitecaps should look for:

• A player who can provide cover for Ryan Gauld
• A player who can provide cover for Brian White
• A player who can provide significant chance creation from the middle of the park
• A player who can provide some ball progression from deeper areas of the field

There may be some overlap between these players.

(Image Credit: Max Visuals)