Match Preview: Looking for revenge against LAFC

It’s rivalry week in MLS and while the Whitecaps don’t get either of their Cascadia brethren this week, they get the next best thing: a tilt with LAFC.

The Southern California side have become rivals of sorts, as they have been Vancouver’s adversaries in a number of high-profile matches in recent memory, starting with last year’s CONCACAF Champions League date.

Things ratcheted up in the playoffs and it will be the first time these two teams have met since the now infamous rumble at BC Place between manager Vanni Sartini, the refs and both teams.

That means there will be plenty of drama for neutrals on Saturday, even if LAFC have not quite reached the same lofty heights as they reached in the last few seasons.

It isn’t terribly hard to see why, when you look under the hood a bit. LAFC have a pretty bare bones roster at the moment, with the Black and Gold struggling to even fill out a bench in some league matches this year. This was fueled by the departure of some key contributors, ranging from Carlos Vela to Diego Palacios.

Reinforcements are coming in the summer, including French international Olivier Giroud. And Giroud will be welcome in more ways than one, as this LAFC side has been struggling to finish the chances they have created. No side in MLS has blown more big chances and they are underperforming their expected goals by a considerable amount.

A couple of things have compounded these woes. For one, Steve Cherundolo has insisted on playing Mateusz Bogusz as a sort of shadow striker. Three goals in 11 goals isn’t terrible for the Polish international but he has proven to be an unnatural fit in the role at times.

And while Denis Bouanga is still an elite MLS attacker, a year after breaking all sorts of goal-scoring records, this hasn’t been nearly as prolific of a season. Bouanga was much more snake bitten early in the year but is still underperforming his expected goals. When you take out penalties, the difference is even more striking: 3 goals on 5.31 non-penalty xG. For a team that was uber-reliant (probably to a fault) on Bouanga, this has spelled trouble.

In the defensive realm, there has also been some gaps when compared with the expected goals. LAFC have shipped 19 goals this season on 13 or so expected goals. In part, this has been down to a fairly rough performance from new keeper Hugo Lloris, who The Athletic had near the bottom of their rankings for shot stoppers based on his performances to date. Lloris looked pretty cooked by the end of his Spurs career and he hasn’t looked much better stateside, to the detriment of LAFC.

This might all sound pretty doom and gloom but LAFC sit 7th in the table and have enough dangerous pieces remaining to go on a run seemingly at any given moment. And while a loss to San Jose last weekend was a setback, they were unbeaten in four matches previously, including dates with LA Galaxy and New York Red Bulls. Veterans like Ryan Hollingshead and Illie Sanchez remain stout and Timothy Tillman has had a bit of a breakout year, with four goals and two assists.

The Caps wisely rotated during their midweek Canadian Championship match, giving Ryan Gauld and Brian White 45 minutes of duty each. Andres Cubas was a sub and Ali Ahmed exited after the hour mark, preserving some freshness for the weekend. Fafa Picault didn’t even travel to Calgary, so it is possible he could feature a week after returning to the starting lineup with 90 minutes of work.

The only clear misses here will be Sam Adekugbe, who is out for the next several weeks with a calf injury, and Damir Kreilach, who remains sidelined with an ankle injury. I’d expect a fairly full strength lineup otherwise given how Vanni Sartini elected to play the midweek match.

The Caps have always been a bit awed by LAFC, something they changed quite noticeably last year, beating LAFC away and taking them head on in the playoffs in every area except set piece defending.

If Vancouver wants to get a leg up on their adversaries, now is the time before the summer transfer window gives LAFC a chance to remake their roster. And you have to think there will be more than a little extra juice in this one, with many of the same players involved in the playoff series also taking part in this match.

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