A run of derbies continue Saturday at BC Place, as Vancouver Whitecaps welcome fellow Canadian side Toronto FC to town.
The Caps have not lost to their Ontario-based brethren since 2020, but while many thought the Reds were going to be in the mix for the wooden spoon, new boss John Herdman appears to have tapped into something that has TFC currently sitting in fifth in the Eastern Conference.
Herdman has found something that has gotten Toronto’s high-priced Italian superstars, Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi, to buy in. Insigne is the only player on the team with multiple goals, while Bernardeschi finally looks like the creative force he was brought in to be, sitting in the top ten league wide in American Soccer Analysis’ goals added metric.
But in a blow to TFC, Insigne will be out until mid-May at the earliest. Incidentally, in their first match without their talisman, TFC lost 3-1 at home to Sporting Kansas City. TFC have reshuffled the deck a few times at forward already this season, rotating in and out between Prince Owusu, Jonathan Osorio, Matty Londstaff and Deandre Kerr. They will be forced to make a similar decision on Saturday.
But Jakheele Marshall-Rutty has lived up to his promise as one of Canada’s more promising youngsters, meaning there is still plenty of attacking threat left in this TFC side. There are times this year when TFC have pushed high up the pitch and really took the match to their opponents — take their 2-0 win over Atlanta a couple of weeks back.
But Herdman also knows how to drill his teams and Toronto have been one of the better defensive sides in the league, allowing the fourth fewest goals per match of any team in the league. That’s despite them being shambolic defensively last season. Their expected goals allowed sits a goal-and-a-half higher than Vancouver, however, despite conceding fewer goals. This suggests there could be some fortune involved, though probably not much.
Indeed, Toronto has favoured a system where they sit back and don’t press their opponent. Their low block means the Caps are going to have to do something they haven’t been very good at lately and that is unpicking a resolute low block, without being left open to some dangerous wingbacks on the counter.
For Vancouver, Luis Martins has been ruled out but it sounds like Brian White is in the final stage of the concussion protocol, with an eye towards a possible return to play on Saturday. Given that White looked in mid-season form as both a finisher and a chance creator in the two matches before his injury, this would be a big win for the Caps to avoid a lengthy absence for White, even if he only comes off the bench against TFC.
Beyond that, one would imagine things will be business as usual for Vancouver. The only question might be whether White’s potential return will relegate Damir Kreilach or Fafa Picault to the bench, though given Picault’s excellent form of late, you would hope he has done more than enough to keep his starting spot.
This is an awkward tactical matchup for the Caps but it is another one where you would expect they’d be favoured, particularly at home. Just check whether Brian White is back before placing any bets.
I see us getting a 1-1 or 0-0 tie, mainly because we struggle so badly with a low block formation. The optimist in me says that Fafa and Ali together, might be able to unlock the low block
Fafa and Ahmed should start. No-brainer. If Kreilach starts, to ease White into the game in the 2nd half, then that’s fine. The Caps have to take good care of White as we can’t afford to lose him. The TFC forum “Waking The Red” and their fans mostly see TFC as a team only marginally better than the the previous 2 seasons. Seems they just don’t have the players to get it done and 2 big injuries makes matters worse. Can Herdman effect a strong bounce back game after losing at home or is TFC slipping back into disarray. This is a game the Caps should win. We have better players and better depth, although waiting until the 81st minute to use that depth against Portland almost cost us some points. And just a note on last week’s game: Raposo’s potential foul/PK when he tugged his opponent’s shoulder/jersey and then tripped him as well made the MLS Instant Replay Show that reviews the most controversial calls/non-calls in last week’s games. The host felt a PK should have been awarded. The referee was in very good position to view the play and must have seen it as the Timbers’ player taking a dive. VAR must have seen it that way as well but there’s no doubt that Raposo gave a quick tug which unbalanced the Timbers’ player, however slightly. Risky play by Raposo.
I agree, it’s risky but I saw a love tap followed by an Oscar-worthy dive, so very certain VAR had no thoughts that it was worthy of overturning.
What you saw and what actually occurred aren’t aligned, it was a decent tug of the shoulder by Raposo and (via Instant Replay’s analysis) there was slight contact with the right shin / ankle that clearly puts the attacker off-balance.
Add to that, the ball was right at his feet, not played 3 yards ahead and there’s no way he’s getting to it which in many cases is when players do go to ground to try and draw the call. In this instance, a fair attempt on goal was about to happen.
Both so-called “proper” PRO officials made an incorrect decision, no question. Back to PRO officials, same blown decisions. Raposo got away with a foul that likely would have seen the match end in a draw (and a fair draw, at that).
Ahmed would be the question mark to start given it’s still Ramadan and he won’t have any fuel in his system for the full match. Probably a short start or come into the game when the other team has less legs to cause havoc.