With the 2024 MLS season just days away for the Whitecaps, we went around the horn at The Third Sub to share our thoughts and predictions about what could lie ahead in Vancouver.

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Where will the Whitecaps finish in the Western Conference standings (and if they make the playoffs, how far will they go)?

Sam: I’m going to say 4th in the West. To me, it feels like anywhere from 1st to 7th-8th is a real possibility, the conference is wide open this year. While LAFC and Seattle should be near the top, I also think someone else, be it RSL, Dallas, Portland, or SKC could make a big jump. All it takes is one of those teams jumping ahead of VWFC for them to be down in 4th, although obviously that would still be a very solid regular season. In terms of playoff time, I will say they win a playoff round but go no further, unless they hit it out of the park with some mid-season additions.

Caleb: 1st is a real possibility. The teams who were better than them last (LAFC, Seattle) year have gotten worse/older and the only teams in the West I see as having made significant gains (L.A Galaxy, F.C Dallas) were starting from a much lower baseline. That said, I don’t feel they’ve made the additions to really supercharge the team into a true contender. I’ll say 3rd and they will win one round. But I reserve the right to change that prediction if they fill the 3rd DP slot.

Andrew: There are so many unknowns in the Western Conference that I wouldn’t be surprised with anywhere from 2nd down to 10th. I’m splitting the difference and saying that 5th and fighting for a home playoff spot is about right. I do think this is the year where this team cashes in its experience in the knockout tournament and makes a run to at least the second round of the playoffs and potentially further. If there is a year to do it, this is it given how soft the conference is.

Ian: 4th or 5th feel like real possibilities, but this question always exposes my relentless Whitecaps optimism, so I’ll hedge and go with another 6th place finish. Results in the MLS Cup always seem to come down to momentum and matchups. With that in mind, I’ll posit this theory: if the ‘Caps start the season strong & begin to fade, they’ll get knocked out in the first round; but if they go through a second half renaissance, Vancouver will make the conference finals. As long as they don’t run into LAFC and/or Tim Ford again.

The Vancouver Whitecaps had a +7 goal differential in 2023, will they continue the upward trajectory in 2024, or take a step back? 

Sam: This really hinges on the defensive record, even if Vancouver regresses a bit in terms of scoring, if they can be a little more consistent defensively, I think they’ll improve in this category.

Caleb: Continue the upward trajectory

Andrew: Improvement.

Ian: I’m going to build on Sam’s answer: the ‘Caps goal differential depends on how well they defend against set pieces. In 2023, Vancouver conceded the most Set Play Goals in the league with 18, four more than the next team. Maybe there’s a bit of bad luck at play, since their Set Play xGA was only 11.88 against the actual goals conceded, but that’s besides the point: I really don’t want to be groaning all season about how terrible an idea zonal defending is. Again.

What was Vancouver’s best off-season addition?

Sam: I think that Vancouver’s best off-season move was staying patient and not taking a swing on a winter signing that is more hopeful than it is calculated (e.g. Cordova last year). This obviously only works if they pay it off during the season finding the right target. In terms of those they actually added, I think Kreilach is the obvious choice, at least in the immediate future. Vancouver did not have consistent secondary scoring last season to complement White and Gauld, especially with Julian Gressel leaving mid-season, so Kreilach should fill that void.

Caleb: I think in an ideal world none of the off-season additions would be regular starters. That said, I think Kreilach has given us the most to be excited about in the Tigres series.

Andrew: You can see based on the Tigres tie how Kreilach fits into this attack. I agree with Caleb — another key attacking piece would be great. But I think Kreilach could have one final resurgence this year.

Ian: I’m going to defy the group a little bit and go with Fafa Picault. Once we hit the dog days of summer, I get the feeling we’ll be seeing a lot of Picault backing up White. I’d call his signing a success if his G+A total can hit double digits by the end of the season.

What’s one glaring weakness you think could be exposed this year? 

Sam: I am somewhat concerned that between wingback and central midfield, the Whitecaps are not very deep. The way this season could go off the rails is if the likes of Alessandro Schopf and Luis Martins are asked to play heavy minutes in roles which don’t suit them. If Sam Adekugbe struggles to stay fit and another body or two goes down, this is a reality the Whitecaps might have to face.

Caleb: Well, obviously there’s still the issue of winning defensive headers. But ultimately, if you must have a weakness, that’s not such a bad weakness to have. That said, I think the most disappointing area of the squad is that all of the options to be the 3rd attacking player alongside Gauld and White are decidedly mediocre. I am really hoping for a big mid-season addition in that position.

Andrew: I think the lack of depth at wingback could get exposed, depending on how long Ali Ahmed winds up being out. Beyond Ryan Raposo, I don’t think anyone on the team currently fits what Vanni likes to ask of his wing-backs, meaning the team is crying out for another signing. Also the nagging fear, to Caleb’s point, that the attacking band don’t entirely click or White or Gauld has some sort of drop off in production. That would be what leads to a finish in the 10th place range.

Ian: Don’t make me tap the sign: it’s set piece defending. Do we not remember the two playoff matches against LAFC?? That was a very visual exposing of a glaring weakness. With the exception of Utvik, who I don’t believe is at full match fitness, the ‘Caps defense is unchanged from the one that led the league in the aforementioned Set Piece Goals. Allowing goals that you Should Be Stopping But Don’t may be what keeps the Whitecaps out of the top half of the table.

Who will be the team’s unsung hero or surprise performer this year?

Sam: I really like two of the options below (Johnson and Picualt), but I’ll go in a slightly different direction here. I think that Mathias Laborda could be poised to make a big jump in year two, and he’ll be the club’s surprise performer in the sense that we can’t anticipate just how important he’ll become to VWFC’s defensive line.

Caleb: I think the new formation suits the skill set of Levonte Johnson quite well. Considering my point above about the lack of a really strong option to link up with White and Gauld, I think Johnson has a real opportunity to establish himself as a reliable MLS contributor.

Andrew: Perhaps this is a bit of a weird move as I didn’t pick him above, but I think Fafa Picault really showed his potential value as a super sub against Tigres. I can see him playing the role we all thought Junior Hoilett would play and do it pretty well.

Ian: Sam Adekugbe. Yes, he’s out with a knee issue at the moment, but I get the feeling he’ll be lighting up the wing in the first full season of his second stint with the Whitecaps.

What is one bold prediction you would make that others might not see coming?

Sam: Ranko Veselinovic will be out of the Starting XI by the end of the season. If Bjørn Inge Utvik can integrate himself gradually (it might take some time) and Laborda grows into his role, I can see a world where Ranko is eventually the odd man out on Vancouver’s backline. I’m still not convinced Ranko does enough to control proceedings from that centre position in the back three, so if Utvik can provide a more commanding presence in that position (Utvik said that he prides himself on his leadership and tactical awareness) it might be just what Vancouver needs.

Caleb: First team debut for Finn Linder

Andrew: Vanni Sartini stays true to his word and Isaac Boehmer gets meaningful minutes this year in goal.

Ian: Andreas Cubas is in contention for MLS Best XI. To be fair, we’d see this coming so in this case, “others” represents all the MLS pundits who picked Vancouver to finish 8th or worse.

Are there any players on the current roster you don’t think will be with Vancouver by season’s end?

Sam: Schopf, Brown, and Martins seem to be the most likely candidates, but it only makes sense if the Whitecaps find other players to fill those roles, or someone from Next Pro makes a big jump. Ahmed and Vite are obviously players to watch out for in the medium to long term, but I’m not sure that happens this season.

Caleb: Alessandro Schopf seems poised for a mid-season buyout, much like what happened to Erik Godoy. Last year of his contract, huge cap hit, not a guaranteed starter. Obvious player to move out if you want to make a big mid-season addition.

Andrew: Given his injury, I think Ahmed lasts the year in Vancouver. Schopf was going to be my pick but I could also see Javain Brown moving on, given some rumours of European interest last year.

Ian: Do already-loaned players count? If so, I’m going after the low hanging fruit that is Deiber Caicedo. Otherwise, anyone with a contract expiring in December is vulnerable. That includes guys like Schopf or Johnson, though both have potential club options. I think the real shocker will be that Boehmer is sold at some point.

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Alright, those were some of our thoughts to kick off the 2024 MLS season. How would you answer these questions? Let us know in the comments!