The Vancouver Whitecaps take on Eastern Conference topping F.C Cincinnati this weekend. It marks the end of a grueling series of matches in which the Whitecaps played 10 games in the space of a month. Even we at the Third Sub have felt a bit fatigued so I can only imagine how the players feel! But F.C. Cincinnati has also dealt with a lot of fixture congestion, having made it to the semi-finals of the US Open Cup. So if you have ever wanted to watch a contest between two pretty good MLS teams who are completely exhausted then this is the game for you!

F.C Cincinnati:

Cincinnati is pretty good. You generally don’t end up first in your conference if you aren’t good. The underlying data does suggest that they are a little lucky to be there but that should not be confused with saying they are #ActuallyBad. Their attack is marginally better than their defence with Luciano Acosta leading the way. The striker duo of Brandon Vazquez and Brenner have not been quite as dynamic as last season, combining for only 5 goals. But Cincinnati has no shortage of secondary weapons to draw upon with Alvaro Barreal and Sergio Santos both getting amongst the goals. 

Opposing teams have underscored their xG by about 4 against FCC so far. About 75% of this can be credited to the Goalkeeper Roman Celentano who has been on one this season. They usually play with a back-three made up of Matt Miazga, MLS veteran Nick Hagglund, and second-year player Ian Murphy. On xGA they are 7th in the Eastern Conference, so there are definitely holes to exploit. But Celentano has been so good that in terms of real existing goals against Cincinnati have the second stingiest defence in the East.

Vancouver Whitecaps:

The ‘Caps are pretty well-established as a decent team at this point. But how hungover will they be, both literally and figuratively after their triumph in the Voyaguers Cup? You may recall that after last year’s cup triumph, the ‘Caps came out with a very flat performance against Nashville. I suppose the big question is will Vanni Sartini rotate his squad a bit or will he choose to stick with more or less the same XI that delivered victory in the cup? On the one hand, fatigue is surely starting to set in but on the other hand, they get a week off after this game anyway so they might as well push through. Other than that, there isn’t a whole lot to say. Cincinnati is good but the Whitecaps are at least as good, and as the home team, they will naturally have a bit of an edge. The Vancouver Whitecaps: Slightly more likely to win than not.