Footy fans in CONCACAF have been waiting a long time for World Cup qualifiers to commence, but today, the wait is finally over, and when Canada takes to the pitch tomorrow, it will have been precisely 1660 days since they were last in World Cup Qualifying action.

This time around, 34 nations from CONCACAF are participating in the FIFA World Cup Qualifiers. However, only 3, and possibly 4, will be granted a spot in the world’s biggest tournament.

To get you fully ready, we run you through the format, get a grip on the countries, take a peek at the squads, and whip up a few predictions in what will be a qualifying cycle like no other, all for a spot at first World Cup in the Middle East.

The Format:

It’s not often that about four different formats are expected at different times leading up to a tournament. Fans were dealt an initial shock when in July 2019 a revamped format would see teams qualify for a “Hex” by FIFA ranking. Last spring it became clear that the format would need further alteration. Murmurs of three four-team groups made their way around, before the latest format was officially announced in July 2020. Originally scheduled to kick off in October, further scheduling alterations proposed a March start with the same format. This time though, it appears it’s for real.

It’s fair to say, the anticipation for the qualifiers has been bubbling for a while, and Mr. Montagliani’s going to have to go turn the kettle off soon because they’re reaching a boiling point now. Whether or not it’s your cup of tea, the format is finalized, so we might as well get familiar with it.

The 34 nations have been split up into two groups from the starting blocks. Based on the July 2020 FIFA ranking, the 29 lowest CONCACAF teams will start in round one, while the privileged top five have been given a pass straight to the final round. No, Canada is not among them.

Round 1

The 29 countries left to scrap it out for three spots in the final round must start here.

Countries have been divided into 5 groups of 5 teams, and 1 group of 4 teams. When the format was constructed, this round was meant to include 30 nations split evenly into 6 groups, but St. Lucia withdrew, leaving a 4-team group E. Teams were seeded by FIFA ranking, which is good news for Canada, given they sit second among these 29 teams (7th overall in CONCACAF).

Each team will face each other once, instead of the conventional home-and-away round-robin format usually adopted for such tournaments. There is also a positive for Canada here, as it means that they will get to face the two other highest-ranked teams in their group, namely Bermuda and Suriname, as the home team.

Once each group has played it’s 10 matches (or 6 in group E), only the first placed team in each group makes it through to the second round. Yep, that’s right, each team has only three or four games to place themselves first in their group. This means that there is absolutely no room for slip ups, as even a single draw could be enough to send a team home. For Canada, although at first glance many will see a draw into a group of lower ranked CONCACAF nations as a free pass, the single fixture against each team adds a layer of unpredictability. And then those who do their research on Bermuda and Suriname will also see that this first round is definitely one to keep more than one eye on.

The team in each group with the most points, or best goal differential if tied on points, will advance to Round 2.

The draw on August 19th of last year left us with the following groups:

Group A:

• El Salvador
• Antigua and Barbuda
• Grenada
• Montserrat
• US Virgin Islands

Group B:

• Canada
• Suriname
• Bermuda
• Cayman Islands
• Aruba

Here’s Alex’s analysis of Canada’s group following the draw.

Group C:

• Curaçao
• Guatemala
• St. Vincent and the Grenadines
• Cuba
• British Virgin Islands

Group D:

• Panama
• Dominican Republic
• Barbados
• Dominica
• Anguilla

Group E:

• Haiti
• Nicaragua
• Belize
• Turks and Caicos Islands

Group F:

• Trinidad and Tobago
• St. Kitts and Nevis
• Guyana
• Puerto Rico
• Bahamas

Round 2

The six group winners who survive the first round will face off to make it to the final round. The six teams will be paired in three predetermined match ups. The winner of group A will play the winner of group F, group B against group E, and C versus D. This has been done because while countries ranked 6 through 11 in CONCACAF occupy the pole position in each group, their ranking also determines which group they are sorted into. This ensures that the very highest ranked teams from the initial 29 (El Salvador, Canada and Curaçao), are sure not to clash on their way to the final round. Instead, if Canada are to win group B, they would most likely face Haiti or Nicaragua. Given Canada’s last memory of Haiti is a quarterfinal elimination from the Gold Cup, Canada would not be protected from difficult match ups at this stage either.

Instead of the single game first round, this round will take the form of a two-legged home-and-away tie. The matches will take place in June, directly after the conclusion of the first round. The three teams who come out on top on aggregate score, with away goals considered in the case of a tie, will punch their tickets to the final round.

Final Round

Since the 1998 World Cup Qualifying cycle, the final round of qualifying in CONCACAF has been composed of six teams. It was dubbed the “Hex”. Despite a reform to the qualifying structure, the will to maintain the “Hex” led to the announcement of the originally proposed, and somewhat quirky, format for qualification to Qatar 2022. What it took in the end to make a change to the format of the final round was a global pandemic. It will mean, for all teams, more games (14 rather than 10), and for Canada, a better chance of being there. The last time Canada participated in the final round of qualifying was that maiden Hex in 1998.

The five top ranked teams in CONCACAF, as mentioned above, were awarded a direct entry into this round. They were the sides deemed to have ensured qualification to the final round in the original format. Canada (7), and El Salvador (6), appeared to be in a sprint for that final spot when COVID-19 grinded the whole parade to a halt. Since El Salvador were still within Canada’s reach, they were sent right back to level one with the 28 teams below them.

The 8 teams will face each other home-and-away in this round, scheduled to take place from September 2021 to March 2022. The addition of triple match windows in September, October, January and March means that the conclusion of this round does not have to be pushed back, despite the delayed start date.

The 8 teams in this round will be:

• Mexico
• USA
• Jamaica
• Costa Rica
• Honduras
• Group A/F winner
• Group B/ E winner
• Group D/C winner

The top three teams at the conclusion of the final round, once again determined by goal differential if even on points, will be heading to Qatar. The fourth placed team, meanwhile, will take a trip outside the continent for a inter-confederation play-off. The 3.5 entries to the World Cup are consistent with every edition since Germany 2006. Given the number of qualification spots remains the same, the two added teams in the final round mean that a better record than what was needed in the Hex will be necessary to advance from this final round of eight. For regulars of the Hex, despite some of them getting direct entry, this will mean less chances for slip-ups, such as Mexico’s poor run in 2014, or the USA’s fumble in the latest cycle.

Intercontinental playoff

The team finishing fourth of the eight in the final round will have to go through the intercontinental playoff. This two-legged series, once again decided by away goals if the score is even after the two games, will take place in June 2022. The CONCACAF side will be up against a side from either South America, Oceania, or Asia. The matchups will be determined by a draw.

Overall, this condensed format will keep everyone on their toes. With 29 teams entering in the same round, it gives every team a chance, while not giving anyone a “warm up” round. Every match will be crucial, and no team will be able to afford a slow start.

The Countries:

Now that we’ve looked at the groups and format, you’re surely starting to make predictions as to who will make it through. There may also be some questions on some of the countries, and well, some which you may have never even heard of. Let’s take a closer look at some facts and figures to get a better idea of the nations concerned. Here is every competing team, listed in order of their groups.

Bye to final round:

Mexico

• World Cup appearances: 16
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: 1st in fifth (final) round, qualified
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 1 ; 9
• Total Population: 128 932 753
• Population of males aged 15-39: 25 676 505
• National stadium (capacity): Estadio Azteca, Mexico City (87 523)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 17 ; 6 ; 0

USA

• World Cup appearances: 10
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: 5th in fifth (final) round, eliminated
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 2 ; 22
• Total Population: 331 002 647
• Population of males aged 15-39: 56 829 893
• National stadium (capacity): Various
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 14 ; 9 ; 0

Jamaica

• World Cup appearances: 1
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in fourth (semi-final) round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 3 ; 47
• Total Population: 2 961 161
• Population of males aged 15-39: 604 497
• National stadium (capacity): Independence Park, Kingston (35 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 9 ; 14 ; 0

Costa Rica

• World Cup appearances: 5
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: 2nd in fifth (final) round, qualified
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 4 ; 50
• Total Population: 5 094 114
• Population of males aged 15-39: 1 022 330
• National stadium (capacity): Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica, San Jose (35 175)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 14 ; 12 ; 0

Honduras

• World Cup appearances: 3
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: 4th in fifth (final) round, eliminated
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 5 ; 64
• Total Population: 9 904 608
• Population of males aged 15-39: 2 234 308
• National stadium (capacity): Estadio Olimpico, San Pedro Sula (37 325)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 22 ; 11 ; 0

Group A:

El Salvador

• World Cup appearances: 3
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in fourth (semi-final) round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 6 ; 70
• Total Population: 6 486 201
• Population of males aged 15-39: 1 257 184
• National stadium (capacity): Estadio Cuscatlan, San Salvador (53 400)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 13 ; 6 ; 1

Antigua and Barbuda

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in third round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 12 ; 126
• Total Population: 97 928
• Population of males aged 15-39: 17 714
• National stadium (capacity): Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John’s (10 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 17 ; 4  ; 1

Grenada

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in third round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 18 ; 160
• Total Population: 112 519
• Population of males aged 15-39: 22 314
• National stadium (capacity): Kirani James Athletics Stadium, St. George’s (8 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 12 ; 11 ;0 

Montserrat

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in first round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 27 ; 183
• Total Population: 4 999
• Population of males aged 15-39: 1 126
• National stadium (capacity): Blakes Estate Stadium, St. John’s (1 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 1 ; 12 ; 4

US Virgin Islands

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in first round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 33 ; 207
• Total Population: 38 718
• Population of males aged 15-39: 14 351
• National stadium (capacity): Bethlehem Soccer Complex, St Thomas (1 200)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 2 ; 7 ; 15

Group B:

Canada

• World Cup appearances: 1
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in fourth (semi-final) round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 7 ; 73
• Total Population: 37 742 157
• Population of males aged 15-39: 6 252 903
• National stadium (capacity): BC Place Stadium, Vancouver (54 500) and BMO Field, Toronto (30 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 8 ; 15 ; 1

Suriname

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 15 ; 141
• Total Population: 586 634
• Population of males aged 15-39: 117 338
• National stadium (capacity): Andre Kamperveen Stadium, Paramaribo (7 100)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 3 ; 20 ; 1

Bermuda

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 22 ; 169
• Total Population: 62 273
• Population of males aged 15-39: 9 211
• National stadium (capacity): National Sports Centre, Devonshire Parish (8 500)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 9 ; 11 ; 1

Cayman Islands

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in first round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 29 ; 193
• Total Population: 65 720
• Population of males aged 15-39: 10 604
• National stadium (capacity): Truman Bodden Stadium, George Town (3 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 21 ; 2 ; 0

Aruba

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in third round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 31 ; 200
• Total Population: 106 766
• Population of males aged 15-39: 16 696
• National stadium (capacity): Complejo Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad, Oranjestad (2 500)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 10 ; 7 ; 1

Group C:

Curaçao

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in third round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 8 ; 76
• Total Population: 164 100
• Population of males aged 15-39: 23 829
• National stadium (capacity): Ergilio Hato, Willemstad (10 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 0 ; 21 ; 3

Guatemala

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in fourth (semi-final) round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 13 ; 130
• Total Population: 17 915 567
• Population of males aged 15-39: 3 945 815
• National stadium (capacity): Mateo Flores, Guatemala City (26 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 19 ; 7 ; 0

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in fourth (semi-final) round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 21 ; 168
• Total Population: 110 947
• Population of males aged 15-39: 21 426
• National stadium (capacity): Arnos Vale Sporting Complex, Arnos Vale (18 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 11 ; 10 ; 2

Cuba

• World Cup appearances: 1
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 26 ; 180
• Total Population: 11 326 616
• Population of males aged 15-39: 1 838 547
• National stadium (capacity): Estadio Pedro Marrero, Havana (30 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 12 ; 11 ; 0

British Virgin Islands

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in first round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 34 ; 208
• Total Population: 30 237
• Population of males aged 15-39: 5 176
• National stadium (capacity): A. O. Shirley Recreation Ground, Road Town (3 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 10 ; 10 ; 1

Group D:

Panama

• World Cup appearances: 1
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: 3rd in fifth (final) round , qualified
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 9 ; 78
• Total Population: 4 314 768
• Population of males aged 15-39: 835 025
• National stadium (capacity): Estadio Rommel Fernandez, Panama City (32 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 6 ; 17 ; 0

Dominican Republic

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 17 ; 159
• Total Population: 10 847 904
• Population of males aged 15-39: 2 206 324
• National stadium (capacity): Estadio Olímpico Félix Sánchez, Santo Domingo (27 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 17 ; 11 ; 0

Barbados

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 19 ; 162
• Total Population: 287 371
• Population of males aged 15-39: 46 982
• National stadium (capacity): National Stadium, Waterford (15 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 17 ; 4 ; 3

Dominica

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 28 ; 184
• Total Population: 71 991
• Population of males aged 15-39: 12 738
• National stadium (capacity): Windsor Park, Roseau (12 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 12 ; 6 ; 1

Anguilla

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in first round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 35 ; 209
• Total Population: 15 002
• Population of males aged 15-39: 2 561
• National stadium (capacity): James Ronald Webster Park, The Valley (4 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 21 ; 5 ; 0

Group E:

Haiti

• World Cup appearances: 1
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in fourth (semi-final) round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 10 ; 84
• Total Population: 11 402 533
• Population of males aged 15-39: 2 436 016
• National stadium (capacity): Stade Sylvio Cator, Port Au Prince (10 500)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 6 ; 23 ; 0

Nicaragua

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in third round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 16 ; 149
• Total Population: 6 624 554
• Population of males aged 15-39: 1 426 994
• National stadium (capacity): Estadio Nacional, Managua (20 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 20 ; 2 ; 0

Belize

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in third round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 23 ; 170
• Total Population: 397 621
• Population of males aged 15-39: 86 645
• National stadium (capacity): FFB Field, Belmopan (5 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 16 ;  7 ; 0

Turks and Caicos Islands

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in first round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 32 ; 203
• Total Population: 38 718
• Population of males aged 15-39: 7 649
• National stadium (capacity): TCIFA National Academy, Venetian Road Settlement (3 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 16 ; 2 ; 1

Group F:

Trinidad and Tobago

• World Cup appearances: 1
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: 6th in fifth (final) round, eliminated
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 11 ; 103
• Total Population: 1 399 491
• Population of males aged 15-39: 259 130
• National stadium (capacity): Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port Of Spain (22 575) and Ato Boldon Stadium, Couva (10 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 7 ; 14 ; 5

St. Kitts and Nevis

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 14 ; 140
• Total Population: 53 192
• Population of males aged 15-39: 9 272
• National stadium (capacity): Warner Park, Basseterre (8 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 9 ; 11 ; 2

Guyana

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 20 ; 167
• Total Population: 768 559
• Population of males aged 15-39: 159 448
• National stadium (capacity): National Stadium, Georgetown (15 000)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 11 ; 11 ; 1

Puerto Rico

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in second round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 25 ; 179
• Total Population: 2 860 840
• Population of males aged 15-39: 415 279
• National stadium (capacity): Mayagüez Athletics Stadium, Mayagüez (12 175)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 2 ; 20 ; 4

Bahamas

• World Cup appearances: 0
• Finish in 2018 qualifying cycle: Eliminated in first round
• FIFA ranking (CONCACAF; world): 30 ; 196
• Total Population: 393 248
• Population of males aged 15-39: 76 379
• National stadium (capacity): Thomas A. Robinson, Nassau (15 023)
• Players in squad (domestic; abroad; unattached): 11 ; 1 ; 7

Notes: Populations statistics are estimates of 2020. Many of the matches in the March 2021 window will not be held at teams’ home national stadiums. The squads are for upcoming World Cup qualifiers (if available), or November 2019 Nations League fixtures.

Predictions:

There’s much unknown in the upcoming cycle, but here’s how Alex, Bryan and I think it will play out.

Felix Todd:

Round 1:

• Group A winner: El Salvador
• Group B winner: Canada
• Group C winner: Curaçao
• Group D winner: Panama
• Group E winner: Haiti
• Group F winner: Trinidad and Tobago

Round 2 winners:

• El Salvador
• Canada
• Curaçao

Qualified from final round:

• Mexico
• USA
• Honduras

Intercontinental play-off:

• Canada

Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic:

Round 1:

• Group A winner: El Salvador
• Group B winner: Canada
• Group C winner: Curaçao
• Group D winner: Panama
• Group E winner: Haiti
• Group F winner: Trinidad and Tobago

Round 2 winners:

• Canada
• Curaçao
• Trinidad and Tobago

Qualified from final round:

• Mexico
• USA
• Jamaica

Intercontinental play-off:

• Canada

Bryan Woodward:

Round 1:

• Group A winner: El Salvador
• Group B winner: Canada
• Group C winner: Curaçao
• Group D winner: Panama
• Group E winner: Nicaragua
• Group F winner: Trinidad and Tobago

Round 2 winners:

• Canada
• Panama
• Trinidad and Tobago

Qualified from final round:

• Mexico
• USA
• Canada

Intercontinental play-off:

• Trinidad and Tobago

Games to watch:

Without further ado, let the games begin! The first round gets underway today, March 24th and here are a few games in this opening window which may be particularly intriguing to Canadian fans:

Thursday, March 25th:

Haiti – Belize 17:00 ET/ 14:00 PT

Not to put the cart ahead of the horse, but if Canada does win their group, their expected opponent in the second round will be Haiti. Although Haiti will be the favoured side in this one, do keep your eyes on it, as they have shown to be inconsistent at times.

Canada – Bermuda 20:00 ET/ 17:00 PT

There doesn’t need to be much explained as to why this one is worth watching. The Red and White get their 2022 World Cup Qualifying campaign officially underway against a team who has unsettled some of the region’s biggest sides in the last couple years.

El Salvador – Grenada 22:25 ET/ 19:25 PT

El Salvador comes into the first round in pole position, but they were shaky in their defense of sixth spot in CONCACAF rankings in the last year and a half. This is a match between two sides who won their respective groups in Nations League, so we could be in for a good match here.

Saturday, March 27th:

Aruba – Suriname 20:00 ET/ 17:00 PT

Canadian fans might already have one eye on June after their opening game with Bermuda. This one is a sneak peak of two sides Canada will round out the group against, and eyes will be on Suriname, as they are expected to challenge for top spot in the group with Canada.

Sunday, March 28th:

Cayman Islands – Canada 16:00 ET/ 13:00 PT

Just a short drive away from Orlando where they will have started things off, Canada continues it’s quest to win group B with a clash against the Cayman Islands on Sunday.

Cover Photo: Canada Soccer / Martin Bazyl