It feels bewilderingly quick, but the Whitecaps are just a couple of short weeks away from reporting for their pre-season. This means that it’s time to fire up the sensible transfers machine. In this article, I will specifically be focusing on players who can play in the “2” in a 4-2-3-1. At just about every other position, the Whitecaps are two deep with players I would be perfectly comfortable starting an MLS game. But Axel Schuster has made comments which indicate that Ralph Priso is now seen more as a centre-back than a midfielder. This leaves Jeevan Badwal, a promising but decidedly raw player, as the only backup for Sebastian Berhalter and Andres Cubas. Even if you do count Priso, you probably want a bit more cover there.
If you’re new to this series, here is how it works. The point of Sensible Whitecaps Transfers is not to literally predict which player the Whitecaps will target (though it is fun when that happens). Rather, it is to take stock of the sort of player that is potentially available.
Profile
We’re looking for a player who can play in a double-pivot. So, obviously, defensive strength is an important part of the equation. But the ‘Caps are also pretty reliant on Berhalter to progress the ball from deeper areas. If he is unavailable, you really want someone who can do a bit of that as well. So, from a statistical perspective, we are looking for someone with a high number of defensive actions per 90 and a high number of progressive passes per 90.
MLS Free Agents
The first logical place to look is the MLS free agent class. I see three players who would fit the bill, who have varying levels of plausibility as targets.
Gastón Brugman
If money were no object, Brugman is the player you would sign. He pops in all the areas the ‘Caps are looking for. Unfortunately, money is an object, and Brugman’s salary was 1.4 million last season. Schuster has said that somebody would have to move out in order for the ‘Caps to re-sign both Berhalter and Ali Ahmed before the World Cup (which should be a priority), so unless Brugman wants to take a steep pay cut, like >50%, this probably isn’t happening.
Eryk Williamson
This would be a risky move, but for the right number, Williamson could be an interesting reclamation project. At one time, Williamson was the next big thing, but he has had multiple cruciate ligament injuries since then. He also made 775k last year, which is less than ideal. But he’s a plus on ‘Interrupting’ in ASA’s G+ model and can add value with his passing (he has high xA, and fbref’s definition of a progressive pass is a lot more generous to him). Maybe managed minutes on a strong team is what Williamson needs to get his career back on track. I would only do this if he took a short-term deal at a hefty discount, but it is an option.
Oliver Larraz
The least sexy but most plausible option is Oliver Larraz. He’s relatively young (24) and made only 130k last season, so even if you doubled his salary, he would still be pretty cap effective. His defensive stats really pop, so he meets the defensive strength element we’re looking for well. His ball progression numbers are quite pedestrian, but Colorado was one of the lowest possession teams in the league last year, so playing on a possession-dominant team should help out at least a bit.
Global Search
Now it’s time to turn our attention to the rest of the world. There are a couple of tools that I have used for this search which I need to give credit.
Firstly, Axel Storbacka’s excellent article from 2022 which looks at which leagues’ players are able to succeed when moving to a higher level. This article also provides a rough ranking of every league in Transfermarkt’s database, with the squad values serving as a decent proxy for the strength of the leagues. I looked at leagues in tiers 2-6. I discounted leagues in the Middle East because the wages in those leagues are likely too high to compete.
Likewise, I used Ben Griffis’ streamlit app which is a great way to access most Wyscout data for free. The app doesn’t have data for the most recent Colombian season, a frequent market for MLS clubs, so players from that league were not considered.
I looked for players that met the following parameters:
– At least in the 50th percentile in their league for both defensive actions per 90 and progressive passes per 90.
– Has not moved already within the past year
– Not currently suffering from a long-term injury, does not have pending military service, or any other major disqualifying factor that was immediately and obviously apparent.
– A maximum Transfermarkt value of 1.5 million, unless the player was eligible to for the U-22 initiative.
On that last point, I am assuming things are fairly tight on the cap front, especially if the ‘Caps are looking to re-sign Berhalter and Ahmed. I am also assuming, for the sake of this article, that neither Cubas nor Berhalter is imminently going to be sold (no sure thing).
Transfer fees count against the salary cap, so the ‘Caps aren’t at liberty to make that big of a splash at this stage. The Whitecaps do still have a U-22 slot open, so they could add a player who commands a relatively high transfer fee through that mechanism.
All the players on this list would require an international slot, even the two who would be MLS trade targets. The Whitecaps are currently full on internationals, but I think you could pretty easily free a couple up through sales or loans, so I am not too worried about that at this stage. All of these considerations produced the following massive list:
Now, this looks quite overwhelming, but these players basically fall into five boxes:
Are you SURE this guy only costs 1,500,000?
Transfermarkt, while a very valuable resource, is not perfect at predicting what teams will ask for players. I think some of these players probably aren’t actually gettable for their listed number. For example, I think Toronto F.C. would be ill-advised to let Alonso Coello go for his listed 800k value.
U-22s
Players eligible to be U-22 initiative signings. There are relatively few on the list. It has been observed by boffins that passing and duel winning tend to be skills that players tend to develop more slowly. So it makes sense that not too many U-22 players would get picked up by our search parameters.
Pending Free Agents
These players are about to be free (at least from a transfer fee perspective) so their Transfermarkt values are low. Getting them on a team friendly salary may be a challenge.
Stats Demons Toiling in Obscurity
The transfer market is not perfectly efficient at determining a player’s value. A lot of it has to do with cachet. These players don’t have the cachet but do have the outputs. This is probably where we’re going to find success.
False Positives
These players technically meat all the search criteria but their overall statistical profile is not actually that impressive.
Let’s focus in on one player from each of the first four categories in order.
Cammy Devlin (Are you SURE this guy only costs 1.5M?)
Cammy Devlin is exactly what we’re looking for, leading his position in defensive actions despite his team being top of the league and clear of the 75th percentile in progressive passes. So, the question is, why would Hearts let him go for 1.2 million in the middle of a title challenge? The answer is; they probably wouldn’t.
Ridwan Popoola (U-22)
Of the U-22 eligible players, Popoola is the most interesting to me. A Nigerian playing in the Hungarian league, Popoola meets all the search criteria with the nice bonus of some aerial ability and ball carrying. He would also be eligible to fill a U-22 slot for 7 seasons (and thus only count 200k against the cap) so he could develop into a really efficient piece.
Stefano Moreyra (Pending Free Agent)
Stefano Moreyra’s contract is imminently expiring, and his stats are very tasty. Not having to pay a transfer fee frees you up to offer him more money. However, a 24-year-old coming off a big season in Argentina is going to have steep demands. But, based on the stats, it seems worth a try. There is the possibility that he already has something lined up and will just sign somewhere before this article can even be published, in which case, never mind!
Javier Dominguez (Stat Demon Toiling in Obscurity)
Javier Dominguez might be the sweet spot. At 25, he doesn’t have the prospect premium attached to him and Paraguay is a relatively affordable market in any case. He passes all the search parameters with flying colours and adds some ball carrying as well.