The Vancouver Whitecaps continue their CONCACAF Champions Cup campaign against Liga MX side Pumas. It’s a matchup between a team in unbelievable form (positive connotation) and a team in unbelievable form (negative connotation).

Pumas, managed by former Whitecap Efrain Juarez, had a very strong Apertura campaign finishing 4th. But in the Clasura, they have been crashing out in a big way. Pumas have the third-worst form in Liga MX, having won only once in their last 5. They have only won three times in their last 10 in all competitions, and one of those was the second leg of their CCL tie with Cavalry. You may recall that the second leg was a must-win because they lost the first leg against the CPL side.

These results aren’t exactly a fluke either. In the Apertura Pumas’ expected goal difference per game was a very strong +0.36 (about on par with the 2023 Whitecaps). In the Clausura, this has fallen to a disastrous -0.29 (about on par with the 2022 Whitecaps).

So, what’s behind this collapse? One potential cause is the departure of Cesar Huerta. The attacking midfielder and Mexican national team regular was sold to Belgian club Anderlecht. Highly rated wingers Leo Suarez and Jorgje Ruvelcaba also seem to have been in and out with injury (but both should be healthy to face Vancouver).

These personnel issues perhaps explain their offensive fall-off. But what about the defensive side of things? Well, I am not a Liga MX watcher so I don’t have all of the context. However, based on some of their recent highlights they seem to be running a 3-4-3 in possession that is leaving them very open to transitions.

One last factor working against Pumas, their league game was on Sunday so they will be on less rest than Vancouver.

Pumas are still a force to be reckoned with. They have, on paper, a strong squad with a lot of recognizable CONCACAF stars. But if you had to pick a time to play them, this would be it.

Of course, the Whitecaps are not exactly the best version of themselves at the moment either. Ryan Gauld and Sam Adekugbe have been out for a while of course but now Andres Cubas and Mathias Laborda are likely out for this match as well. Honestly, Cubas and Laborda might be the hardest losses to take as these CONCACAF games tend to be a bit frantic and those two thrive on the chaos. 

I would imagine if transitions are going to be key in this game then Jayden Nelson and Ali Ahmed are the players to watch for Vancouver. On the defensive side of things it will be interesting to see if Johnson and Ocampo can lock things down at the fullback position. 

Even with a slightly depleted side, the Whitecaps are the form team and playing at home. So I would certainly favour them to win the first leg. But landing a big enough blow that they are assured to progress will be a challenge with their absences.