Less than 24 hours ago I was mocking the idea of Stuart Armstrong moving back to the UK as an obviously fabricated story. Nobody bats 1.000. I can’t lie, it’s a bit of a kick in the nuts with the season fast approaching. In the immediate term, this makes the Whitecaps quite a bit weaker. But that need not be the final outcome of the situation.
In 2023 the Whitecaps’ attacking numbers were truly astonishing. They were 3rd in the league in expected goals, and they led the league in passes into the penalty box and crosses into the penalty box. Then Julian Gressel departed amidst nebulous personal reasons (to be fair, any personal reasons probably should be kept vague for the general public). He was briefly replaced by Richie Lareya and then by “???” in 2024. In the 2024 season, all those exciting attacking metrics cratered back to basically the league average. It was very hard to replace Gressel’s combination of ball progression and scoring output. Stuart Armstrong was supposed to fix that, and for about four games he did. But now he’s gone and we’re back where we started. Once again it is very hard to see how the Whitecaps are going to score any goals outside of White and Gauld. Worse still, it seems unlikely any replacement could be signed and integrated in time to take part in Vancouver’s Champions League tie against Saprissa.
That’s the crisis part. But let’s turn our attention to the opportunity part. Armstrong was under contract until 2026 and there were multiple clubs interested in him. So, presumably, the Whitecaps got some money for him. Armstrong’s departure opens up a DP slot and an international spot. You can make something happen with a 7 figure transfer fee and an open DP slot! But what should they make happen?
Option A: Stay the Course
In this option, things don’t change very much. You’re still in “win now mode” trying to win something before Gauld and Cubas age out. Regardless of which roster model you choose, you probably need to find someone who is going to provide creativity from central areas and scoring output to replace what you lose with Armstrong’s departure.
Option A | Sub-Option 1: 3DPs+3 U-22
Not much changes if you go this route. The only real choice is whether you bring in another DP to directly replace Armstrong or you do that with a TAM player and use the DP slot on someone in the front line.
Option B | Sub Option 2: 2DPs+4 U-22’s+ 2 Million GAM Bouns
The Whitecaps could potentially switch models and go for the extra U-22 initiative player and extra GAM. On the face of it, this doesn’t look like the move for a win now team. U-22s are a lot more hit and miss than senior DPs and often need a bit longer to adapt to MLS. But the extra GAM, on top of the roughly 3 million in cap space the Whitecaps already had might allow you to build a more well-rounded senior roster. The extra GAM could also let you go big game hunting in the trade market, maybe give Minnesota United an offer they can’t refuse for Tani Oluwaseyi (or, you know, something like that). I would probably still lean towards the 3DP model but it depends on what options are out there (maybe we’ll look at some of those options in the coming weeks).
Option B: Pull the ‘Chute.
I feel bad for even putting this out into the universe. But the Whitecaps have a lot of players who are at peak value right now. Brian White (28) and Tristan Blackmon (28) stand out as late prime Americans who would have a ton of value in the trade market. Andres Cubas (28), is perpetually linked with Boca Juniors and would surely fetch a decent 7 figure fee. Big clubs in Latin America are absolutely falling over themselves to pay MLS teams too much money for Latin American players with international pedigree so Pedro Vite and Mathias Laborda would surely have suitors. Ali Ahmed has been linked with European clubs (in a way that seems very agent-generated, but still). Maybe you decide that the moment has passed and it’s time to cash in and re-load.
From a PR perspective, I think this would be a tough sell. But we know the age profile of this squad, you’re going to have to do a re-build at some point. I doubt you start the season with this goal in mind but if the Whitecaps have one of their classic slow starts this option might start to look more attractive.
There are only 2 reasons how this offseason makes any sense. Either everyone in the FO is completely checked out and are self-sabotaging. Or there’s some half-baked scheme to tank the Whitecaps’ value far below the $420 million reported sale price and are self-sabotaging.
There is only one constant.
I was holding out some hope for a decent 2025 season, but it was only ever that….hope. Not that Armstrong was the critical piece of the puzzle, but losing him now and with a new coach – anyone who thinks there is a “win now” possibility is deluding themselves. If Gould, White or Cubas have anything less than a stellar season, the potential of this team is grim at best.
The outlook is simply not positive for this team – not to rebuild, not even to stay in Vancouver. That is to say nothing of attracting top talent. If Vancouver is so world class and livable why can’t we attract a true star? The answer is our management is feckless, our ownership have checked out and the word on the street is that the caps aren’t long for Vancouver. I agree with an above post – it would likely be better to expend brain power on considering where the caps will move than on who they will get to “fill the gap”. Armstrong wasn’t the cornerstone of the team, but his departure points to a broader problem with this club – it’s directionless. A better offfer won’t cause a second of pause for any player on the Caps. Gould, White, Cubas, Ahmed, could all be gone with offers soon. Why stay if the club has no plan, an underwhelming management approach and is likely to be sold??? “Win now” is the plan?? Let me fill everyone in on something….”win now” is every single football clubs plan! Can’t believe we put up with this crap AND $12 beer! What a joke.
This close season has been disaster, something that Axel should have to answer for.
Last minute coach appointment, one new signing, and Armstrong leaving – something Axel must have known was a possibility two months ago.
Either he has been told to seriously reduce the budget for this season, or he just hasn’t been doing his job.
Damm, suffering the loss of the Vancouver Grizzlies, this really feels like deja vu. The owners don’t care at this point, if they ever did, about the quality of the on field talent. This is definitely going to snowball and the fall of the Canadian dollar, like with the Grizzlies, is going to play a big role in the demise of the Vancouver Whitecaps. Time to start speculating on where in the US they move to…
to the writer — you have presented an optomistic view of the Caps loosing Stuart Armstrong- i dont mean to belittle your work as i do value your site and weekly articles– you deserve a badge of honor for taking on this task year-after-year
for me- and after supporting the Caps since 1974- its all about the insult of leaders in the Club saying that they want to build on 2024 and be a more competitive Team- loosing armstrong for probably $2-3 million smacks of making money for the owners who are hoping to cash-out ASAP- i am not convinced that the Caps will be in Vancouver/MLS come 2026-2027… this loss is an indication and until the Club does do something HUGE to replace Armstrong, i think i am sadly right
This feels like the failure to land Duarte (possibly for financial reasons) all the worse.
They should give Latiff Blessing a look. He’s without a club.
quote- “You’re still in “win now mode” trying to win something before Gauld and Cubas age out.”
we all know that isnt true- and you have to know that also- this definitely is a weaker Team than 2024- picault, raposo and now armstrong are all gone – and nothing notable coming in (and that includes our small signing of Jayden Nelson)
there is NO way- no matter how hard the Club and some naive hopefuls try- that the 2025 season looks promising- if i were Ryan Gauld, Brian White and Andreas Cubas, i would be looking to get out to a Club that has some ambition
what is Jude Bellingham up to these days? maybe a good replacement for big Stu
you joke, of course
Would love to see ownership step up with a strong replacement signing putting the post world cup departure rumors away….
Guald considering an offer to join Aberdeen
i havent seen any possibility of this offer– if it does happen, we will know that the Caps are done for 2025 and will be moving to a USA city by 2026