Sunday afternoon at BC Place, the Vancouver Whitecaps will host Los Angeles FC, in a match that was previously re-scheduled due to LAFC’s run in Leagues Cup.

There’s little doubt that the biggest story-line headed into this match is who will be missing, rather than who will be on the pitch for both sides. This is certainly disappointing given the gravity of the fixture, especially for the Vancouver Whitecaps. Vancouver will be without six regulars: Sam Adekugbe, Ali Ahmed, Ryan Gauld, Andres Cubas, Fafa Picault, and Pedro Vite, while LAFC will be without two of their three leading scorers: Denis Bouanga, and Cristian Olivera, as well as defender Maxime Chanot.

While the Whitecaps stood on the precipice of a top four spot in the West after winning the Canadian Championship against TFC, a three match winless run has come at the worst possible time. As a result, Vancouver will have to find some results (against very good teams) over their last two matches in order to avoid the dreaded play-in game.

As far as the conference standings are concerned, 1st through 4th in the West looks pretty comfortable, while 5th through 9th is still a free for all, with far more permutations than I can account for here. Basically, if Vancouver can use this match in hand to secure a win, moving up to 50 points on the season, they should end up somewhere between 5th and 7th, depending on how things go on decision day. However, if Vancouver drops points against LAFC, then it could be quite tense on the final day of the regular season. In that case, Vancouver could need some outside help to avoid the play-in.

Now, as I’m sure you are all aware, the Whitecaps have seen more of LAFC over the past couple years than they would like, and those matches have usually been tough ones for Vancouver. It will certainly help that Bouanga and Olivera are out of commission, but on the whole, I think it’s fair to say that Vancouver’s absences will have a bigger impact than LA’s.

In terms of advanced metrics, LAFC is the best team in MLS by a comfortable margin – they defend as well as the Sounders, and the only team better in terms of attacking metrics are the LA Galaxy. That’s a pretty deadly combination. This team did go through a notable September slump, where they went five matches without a win and dropped points against both Austin FC and FC Dallas. Unfortunately for Vancouver though, the black and gold appear to be back on track, as they’re a perfect 4-0-0 since then (if you include the US Open Cup win), and have outscored their opponents 9-2 during that stretch, like the juggernaut we all expect.

In terms of lineup, Olivier Giroud and Mateusz Bogusz (LAFC was a bit lucky he was not called for Poland, as he played in the last window) will carry the primary load in attack, while both Kei Kamara and Carlos Vela could have a role to play from the bench. Elsewhere, Chanot (away with Luxembourg) has been a regular in the middle of LAFC’s back three, so that’s an area the Whitecaps can look to test, even though Eddie Segura is a solid backup option in that spot.

For the Whitecaps, a lot is going to fall on a rotated midfield unit, as none of the four who started against Minnesota will be available Sunday. That might not be the worst thing in the world though, as Vancouver struggled for creativity in that match, and perhaps wholesale changes after a week of training will bring some life to the squad. In terms of individuals, I would expect big shifts from Sebastian Berhalter, Alessandro Schopf, Ralph Priso and Ryan Raposo. Stuart Armstrong might also be a strong candidate to start up font underneath Brian White. Finally, I would expect to see some changes along the backline, as Tristan Blackmon and Belal Halbouni could play alongside Ranko Veselinovic.

LAFC is always going to be a tough out, so you have to hope that late-season desperation for Vancouver, in combination with a crowd of 30,000, is enough to give the home side the boost they need. The Whitecaps undoubtedly need these points more than the visitors, especially with LAFC having a softball matchup against San Jose on decision day, so it’ll be interesting to see if there’s a difference in intensity between the two sides. All in all, I think a bit of roster upheaval (in combination with an actual week of training) could be good for Vancouver, so I’ll back them to earn a plucky 2-1 win on Sunday afternoon at BC Place.

Image Credit: (Keveren Guillou and LAFC)