Deep Dive, Eighty Six Forever, Vancouver Whitecaps FC

Stuart Armstrong: One Last Roll Of The Dice

The Vancouver Whitecaps have signed 32-year-old Scottish Midfielder Stuart Armstrong. In most cases, a 32-year-old DP would not be a signing that I would like. But given the Whitecaps’ circumstances, I think this signing is a good one. Let’s get into this in further detail.

Usually, investing a lot of your budget in a player over the age of 30 is not a winning strategy in MLS. As I wrote for OneSoccer last year, although these aging starts tend to put up pretty decent numbers their teams usually do not perform well. The reasons for this are two-fold. Firstly, these older players tend to be injured more often. MLS is a very physically demanding league. The matches themselves are certainly not as physically difficult as the Premier League or Championship (where Armstrong has been playing) but the travel and harsh climates can be difficult to adapt to for players used to going to away games by bus. So building your team around a player who could miss 20-30% of the games is fraught. Additionally, having to design a tactical system around a player who is only getting slower and weaker physically tends to put teams who make aging stars the fulcrum of their team into a tactical bind.

However, these problems don’t really apply to Armstrong’s case. The Whitecaps are built around prime-age Ryan Gauld and Andres Cubas. Armstrong isn’t coming in to be the star of the team, he’s coming in to be a complimentary piece that pushes the team over the top into contender status. The Whitecaps don’t need him to log 3000 minutes a season. If he can put in a top-tier 75 minutes against LAFC in the Western Semi-Finals and give the ‘Caps the boost they need to advance then he’s already worth it.

There’s also the matter of Vancouver’s squad situation. Most research on aging curves shows that players peak around age 25 and undergo a decline (at varying speeds) after the age of 28. Here are Vancouver’s most used 16 (11+5 subs) players this season and their ages (discounting Javain Brown and Luis Martins who are no longer on the team.

Yohei Takaoka: 28

Ranko Veselinovic: 25

Brian White: 28

Ryan Gauld: 28

Pedro Vite: 22

Mathias Laborda: 24

Andres Cubas: 28

Sebastian Berhalter: 23

Ryan Raposo: 25

Bjorn Utvik: 28

Alessandro Schopf: 30

Ali Ahmed: 23

Fafa Picault: 33

Tristan Blackmon: 28

Levonte Johnson: 25

In other words, this team is overwhelmingly constructed of players who are in their prime but won’t be for much longer. The time to add the final piece to push this group of players over the top is right now.

Now is probably as good a time as any to start talking about Armstrong as a player. A few months ago I talked about how the Whitecaps created pretty good chances but not a great enough volume to be a top team. They don’t create enough from the more dangerous central areas of the pitch. They have also lagged a little bit this season at progressing the ball to the final 3rd and getting it into the penalty area. Well, Armstrong played centrally for Southampton in the Championship last season, and here’s how he stacked up against other players in his position in a few key stats.

Non-Penalty xG: 97th percentile

xA: 97th percentile

Shot-creating actions: 96th percentile (notably, about the 65th percentile in every sub-category of SCA except defensive actions)

Progressive passes: 96th percentile

Passes into the penalty area: 99th percentile (his 3.38 per 90 would make him the best Whitecap in this statistic by a staggering margin)

Crosses into the penalty area: 92nd percentile

Progressive carries: 98th percentile

Carries into the penalty area: 96th percentile.

In simple terms, Armstrong generates a ton of chances for himself and others and is a ball progression monster whether he’s passing to teammates or carrying it himself. He does all of the things the Whitecaps were missing. One of his closest statistical matches is Riqui Puig. Glass City posted a data vis comparing the two which demonstrates the similarity of their outputs.

Of course what this this also demonstrates is that Armstrong doesn’t really do any defending but that’s what Cubas is for!

The last piece to talk about is where Armstrong fits into the team. He has played a ton of positions in his career but most recently played as an attacking #8 for Southampton. Initially, I assumed he would slot in as an attacking midfielder for the ‘Caps but then Vanni Sartini said he sees Armstrong primarily as an 8. So now I’m thinking what we’re most likely to see is a return to a 3-5-2 that looks something like this:

I wouldn’t say they are the favourites by any means but in my estimation that’s a team with a non-zero chance of winning MLS Cup. One last roll of the dice, it’s going to be a wild ride.

4 thoughts on “Stuart Armstrong: One Last Roll Of The Dice”

  1. There is no chance Vanni moves from his precious 3-4-3 “perfect defensive system” to a 3-5-2. It doesn’t matter that it makes sense, he won’t do it. Instead, he’ll shoehorn Armstrong in to position where it doesn’t quite compliment what he does, then throw up his hands and say he doesn’t understand what went wrong when it inevitably goes wrong.

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  2. i think this is a terrific signing, the type of player needed in our MF !! your overview and details of Armstrong should make any Cap supporter say THANKS to Axel Schuster, Ryan Gauld and- i hate to say this- the Ownership

    your outlay of the Team has some mistakes IMO- i dont like to repeat this, but i dont think Adegukbe is able to play much of a part – his persistent leg injuries are still on-going

    and after watching the hilites, Ocampo seems to be an upgrade to fill in for Sam- i would put him on the right side WB and move Ahmed to the left side WB

    and i still am reserved about Vite and would be tempted to go with Picault who is a more reliant and gutsy performer and can cause opposing defenders some serious problems, certainly more than Pedro

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  3. Delighted with this signing. I support Celtic and I have seen Stuart Armstrong develop into a very cerebral player. Reads the game very well and is never afraid to hit the ball. We squander far too many chances in front of opponents goal. Armstrong will hopefully remedy this.

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  4. Nice read.

    I like the signing, and having 3 DPs in the midfield (depending on formation) should create more than enough chances for White to bang in a lot, or for others to clean up second chances.

    I’m hoping he gets on the field tonight, even if starting is out of the question, a late sub seems reasonable, especially given our injury/international situation.

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