Saturday night at BC Place, the Vancouver Whitecaps will welcome the LA Galaxy to town. After a big 4-0 win last weekend over Toronto FC, the Whitecaps sit at the top of the Western Conference standings, something that has not been seen too often here in Vancouver.
The tough work is just getting started though. Right as they have ascended to the top of the conference, the Whitecaps face a challenge from the second best team in the West: A team that always promises to produce attacking fireworks, even if defending is on many occasions an afterthought. The stats bear out this model through the first seven games for the Galaxy, as they have created the second most xG in the West at 12.9, but have also allowed the second most xGA at 12.5.
The Galaxy’s attack is a three-headed monster, with each of those players being able to make a case as one of the best in the league at their position. Up front, Dejan Joveljić leads the Galaxy with 5 goals and 1 assist. Joseph Paintsil, an off-season addition from Genk in Belgium, has shown flashes of his game-breaking pace and quality in a wide role. Finally, Riqui Puig’s needs no real introduction, as he’s undoubtedly one of the best creative players in MLS. When it’s worked for the Galaxy, these players have given MLS defenders far more than they can handle.
On the flip side, defending has often been an adventure. My mind is drawn immediately to LA’s 3-3 draw against St. Louis City back on March 16th, as the two teams traded transition chances and the Galaxy needed two extra-time goals to salvage a result. American keeper John McCarthy, to his credit, has also been rescuing his defensive unit so far, posting a +3.8 post-shot expected goal differential, which is second overall in MLS.
The Galaxy are coming off their first loss of the MLS season, as they fell 2-1 in an El Traffico affair against LAFC at BMO Stadium. Although they do have a genuine complaint about the result, as Denis Bouanga blatantly drew an undeserved penalty to put LAFC ahead, the Galaxy did also concede 3.6 xG to the home side, so it was clear who was the better team on the day. The week previous, the Galaxy impressed with a 1-0 clean sheet victory at home over Seattle, though again, the Galaxy were outmatched in terms of chance creation, even if some of that is due to score effects with the Galaxy taking the lead inside the first 10 minutes.
Overall, this clash is an interesting one for Vancouver. The Galaxy differ greatly from Toronto in terms of the dynamic attacking threat they can provide. However, as with TFC last weekend, if Vancouver can capitalize on transition moments, they are more than capable of giving the Galaxy real headaches trying to defend the likes of White, Gauld, Picault, and Ahmed.
I think Vancouver will take a pragmatic approach to this match, much in the way LAFC did last weekend against the Galaxy, allowing their opponents to hold possession in the middle of the park as much as they would like, but clogging spaces where Puig would look to find Paintsil and Joveljić in dangerous areas. LAFC went all-in on this approach, allowing the Galaxy to hold a whopping 68% possession. Vancouver is more than capable of embracing a similar low possession counter-attacking strategy, and I would expect to see it this weekend at BC Place.
In terms of Vancouver’s lineup, Bjorn Inge Utvik’s status is in question as he recovers from a twisted ankle suffered last weekend. Otherwise, I would not expect many changes throughout the squad, though I wonder what Vanni Sartini decides to do with Pedro Vite, who has struggled individually despite Vancouver’s team success over the last two weekends.
In terms of predictions, I have to think there are goals on offer for both sides in this fixture. Each team will want to assert its authority at the top of the conference, and if a goal is scored early, I think it could become a wide open game. In the end, I have to back the Whitecaps on home turf to come out on top. LA’s performances the past two weekends have been far from convincing, and I think Andres Cubas could be a real X-Factor for Vancouver, doing just enough to slow down the Galaxy’s dynamic attack as the Whitecaps come away with a 3-2 win.
(Image Credit: LA Galaxy & Mark Zhuang)