One Weird Trick to Score More Goals

Despite a strong start on paper, anybody who has watched all four of the Vancouver Whitecaps’ MLS games can tell that something is not quite right. True, Vancouver has scored 7 goals but this is largely thanks to a ludicrously high conversion rate of the small number of chances they have created. There would seem to be an obvious scapegoat, that Damir Kreilach and Brian White are way too slow to be accommodated as part of the same attack. But it can’t be that simple can it? Yes, it can! Allow me to demonstrate with some crudely drawn tactical diagrams.

Consider the situation below:

This is a fairly common situation. The opponents are building out of the back and the Whitecaps are in their typical mid-block structure. Vancouver likes to get very narrow and force the opposition to either try to build in wide areas, where their wing-back can step up and use the sideline to cut off space or to try a hero ball in between the wing-back and the wide fullback (and, honestly, how many MLS centre-backs can play that pass?). In the diagram above, all seems to be well. The Whitecaps have gotten into their shape and there are no obvious passing lanes. However, there is a problem that is hard to capture in a diagram. That problem is that 34-year-old back surgery recipient Damir Kreilach is extremely slow. So it only takes a couple of passing rotations between the centre-backs and you’ve drawn him out of position and can easily play out through the middle. Maybe this could be compensated for if both of Vancouver’s wide attacking players were super-athletes who could cover ground extremely quickly. But Brian White is also quite slow so that isn’t happening. Maybe you could pull White and Gauld even narrower to compensate but that leaves your wing-backs even more exposed and those wide areas are the weakest part of Vancouver’s defensive set-up already. Vancouver being easy to play through creates a lot more pressure on their back-line and gives them less time to attack. That is bad! Vancouver’s defence seems to be pretty good this year, their opponents have averaged less than 1.0 expected goals per game through the first four MLS matches, so they can handle a certain amount of pressure. But, as we saw against Real Salt Lake, if your opponent gets to spend the whole game in your half launching in crosses and firing off long-range shots, eventually something is going to go their way. 

Consider another familiar situation.

In the diagram above, the ‘Caps have won the ball back and are now transitioning into attack (as we just discussed, their defence is good so this happens a lot). Ryan Gauld has the ball in the half-space and has some time but is a long way from the opponent’s goal. The natural place to look is at the space behind the opposition’s backline. However, there is absolutely no chance Kreilach is winning that foot race, and White, who would have a moderately better chance, is too far away. Therefore, a ball in behind simply isn’t a viable option. This gives Gauld two options. The first option is to try and dribble the entire length of the field by himself. This would be difficult for any player and dribbling is a relative weakness for Gauld so this option is far from ideal. This leaves only an outlet ball to the wing-back, who has usually been Ryan Raposo this season. Now, I like Raposo. I try to love him for what he is and forgive him for what he isn’t but one thing he definitely isn’t is ball secure! You don’t want Raposo involved this early in the build-up. You want him getting on the ball in the final 3rd so he can cut inside, roll the cosmic dice, and occasionally cause a goal to happen. You don’t want him trying to dribble or make decisions from midfield because there is a good chance he is going to lose it and start the cycle of pressure on the backline all over again.

Lastly, let’s consider a situation that I haven’t seen remarked upon that often but I have noticed occur a few times.

In this situation, the opposition press has backed Vancouver into a corner (and why wouldn’t you press them, what are they going to do? Play a ball in behind?). Takaoka has no real choice but to go long. You might think this is the sort of situation where having two lumbering but sturdy players in your front three would be an advantage. But in practice, this has not been the case. The problems are twofold. Firstly, Kreilach is so slow that unless the ball is played right on top of him he often doesn’t have the speed to get under it and contest a header. Secondly, the lack of speed up front means it’s unlikely that Vancouver is going to get to any second balls first. Gauld might be able to get there but if the ball ricochets towards White then he probably won’t have the foot speed to get there first. Once again, Vancouver has been made to put themselves under more pressure because they have no outlet.

So, we’ve identified the problem, where do we go from here? I have identified a simple formula that I think should get things moving in the right direction:

Number of players in the front three who can run =/>2.

I think it really is that simple. You can accommodate one of Kreilach and White but you can’t play them both at the same time except as an absolute last resort. I would call up WFC2 players before starting both again. The Whitecaps have looked considerably more dangerous with Fafa Picault as part of their front three this season. As I outlined at the time of Picault’s signing, he’s nothing special. But he can actually get on a ball in behind an opposing defence which forces the opponent to take that seriously as a thing the Whitecaps might do. This in turn opens up more space for Gauld to work in and prevents the opponent from pressing as high, lest they leave themselves exposed to a quick break.

The solution, therefore, is simple. Follow the above formula at all times with no exceptions. Then, in the summer, use your open DP slot or one of your two open U-22 slots and sign a player who is both fast and good.

So, now that we have solved the problem, what are we to do with Kreilach? The Whitecaps seem to have signed him with the idea he was going to start most of the games. That was very stupid and whoever suggested it should have any future suggestions they make checked over carefully by colleagues. Kreilach is past his best, played very little last season due to a major surgery, and was not very productive when he did play. Planning for such a player to be a major contributor is pure insanity. But what’s done is done. I think Kreilach does still have something to offer. Although his movements are not very fast anymore, they are still intelligent. Both of Kreilach’s goals have come due to him finding seams in the opposing defence and arriving unmarked in the box. He’s also still a big strong guy. Against a defence that was sitting deep and desperately trying to hold on to a lead this sort of profile could be quite useful. In this sort of situation there would be a lot less defensive running involved and few chances to run in behind even for fast players. Kreilach can also be used to give Gauld a rest when the ‘Caps are up by two goals or more and just need to see out a game. However, this sub should be paired with bringing on a fast attacker, like Levonte Johnson, to prevent the no-speed induced pressure doom cycle.

7 thoughts on “One Weird Trick to Score More Goals

  1. Ahmed for Raposo at LWB, Picault for Kreilach, Kreilach as a late game sub for White, for now keep Brown at RWB because he is a better defender than Raposo and can get onto the end of dead ball attacking service, Raposo becomes a late game sub for Ahmed, Johnson a late game sub for Picault. When Adekugbe comes back, he goes to the left and Ahmed goes to the right in place of Brown.

    Badda bing, badda boom!

    1. Pretty much this.

      I’d like to think this was the plan months ago, but Picault, Ahmed and Adekugbe all being in various stages of recovery and not game shape to start the season wasn’t ideal.

      Assuming we aren’t changing formation, pushing Vite up to to the right side and shifting White back central, and then playing Berhalter alongside Cubas as a stop gap would have been better.

      IMHO anyways, but it’s also hard to argue with a 2-1-1 start to the season given the circumstances

  2. Agree with everything you said. One other thing to note is that in the second scenario you showed having Ahmed where Raposo is would give another way of progressing the ball. Ahmed and Fafa need to be starting every game until we (hopefully) sign a DP attacker.

  3. Besides Gauld , and maybe the goalie, this team should be blown up and get some pros with character in there like they used to have in Kendall Watson or players of that mode…there is no fire under this team…going nowhere with this roster

    1. Ha ha go cry in your TFC coffee. Caps still the best team in Canada fwiw, and it would take a horrendous backslide to change that anytime soon.

  4. Great analysis. Fafa will be back for next game I am hoping and ya let’s try some Levonte Johnson. If we kept Becher he would have been another good option. We have gotten fairly lucky to be where we are for points so far but that won’t hold.

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